The Downside Risk of Evaluation Essay Topic That No One Is Talking About

The Downside Risk of Evaluation Essay Topic That No One Is Talking About There are a lot of helpful sources readily available online which can assist you with any academic writing task. Getting in a position to present details, comments, and information that's directly linked to the type of evaluation essay that you're writing can help you produce a highly-usable output. To put it differently, it offers a well-reasoned evaluation. There is a broad selection of evaluation essay examples that are especially created for specific purposes. If you'll properly recognize the criteria which will best fit your needs for the particular evaluation, then it is possible to make your evaluation essay stronger and more effective. You've got to spell out how you had the ability to produce the evaluation including the specification of the facets you have considered within the entirety of the evaluation and writing process. Since an evaluation essay isn't only part of college essay examples as it may also be utilized in company and company processes, you must understand the weight of its effectiveness. It is meant to demonstrate the overall quality of a particular object, service, product, and place. Though looking through numerous evaluation essay samples can supply you with the assistance that you require, you might wish to consider asking a professional writer to create a customized essay for you. Free range parenting because you can see, there are a fantastic number of useful, informative and intriguing topics to write about and evaluate. It is going to also be easier that you think of an evaluation that could be trusted by your readers. The challenge with writing an anecdote is truly creating an intriguing story. The Evaluation Essay Topic Game When stopping this kind of article it certainly is critical to have a complete conclusion to close the problem. For something to be a terrific persuasive essay matter, it ought to be an arguable issue. The write-up demands a placement around the topic and might give an important situation for debate. It displays minimum understanding of the duty. The Evaluation Essay Topic Game There's, obviously, a limit on the range of pages even our very best writers can produce with a pressing deadline, but usually, we can satisfy all the clients seeking urgent assistance. While evaluation essays are simple to write, as you're simply required to evaluate a product, service, entity, event or something different, there's a single major trap to be on the lookout for creating your piece overly opinionated. It may be a soap or lotion, or perhaps it is a vitamin or other supplement. Decision making is a significant skill in critical thinking since it requires you to choose which choice is the very best or most useful among the many available alternatives. When one writes a personal sort of essay, the initial impression is it is entirely devoted to self expression and devoid of any sort of technicality. The essay asks a position on the dilemma and can supply an important context for discourse. Anevaluation essay is the perfect method that could establish if one has leadership qualities. A great sample evaluation essay ought to be concise and on point. Evaluation Essay Topic: the Ultimate Convenience! If you got stuck with how to compose an evaluation essay here it is possible to find any kind of essays. An evaluation essay resembles a review, but it's more specific. It contains an objective assessment that is written by an individual who should be fully-knowledgeable of what he or she is writing about. As with other varieties of essays, it requires an introduction, a body, and a conclusion. Writing documents could possibly be used! Writing about a topic that you recognize about is also beneficial. Evaluation essays work best in case the readers can determine the sources that you've used to think of the assessment which they are currently reading. Writing an evaluation essay is an excellent approach to size up a specific object or idea. Authorship a superb story composition needs you to genuinely contain interesting info in an engaging strategy. If you're writing an evaluation essay, you should remain objective with the content which you're presenting. You will also observe he combines the expository and problem-solution style essays, also. What can set apart an evaluation essay from several types of academic essays is it can also be utilized in various undertakings within the corporate and skilled environment. After you have completed an introduction for the subject of your evaluation, you want to tell the readers the terms which you will be using to evaluate that topic. Pick a topic you want to write about. Just make certain you've got a great topic that you really can evaluate. The topic is actually your choice. There are various types of essays that could be part of a student writing task. Your purpose is going to be to make the ideal scholarship article you're competent to. Sooner or later during yo ur learning, you're going to start attempting to find something which's with the capacity of producing a college essay. The student is likely to discover an ingenious narrative may be a circular journey.

Definition and Examples of Reported Speech

Reported speech is the report of one speaker or writer on the words spoken, written, or thought by someone else. Also called reported discourse. Traditionally, two broad categories of  reported speech  have been recognized: direct speech  (in which the original speakers words are quoted word for word) and indirect speech (in which the original speakers thoughts are conveyed without using the speakers exact words). However, a number of linguists have challenged this distinction, noting (among other things) that theres significant overlap between the two categories. Deborah Tannen, for instance, has argued that [w]  hat is commonly referred to as reported speech or direct quotation in conversation is  constructed dialogue. Observations Reported speech is not just a particular grammatical form or transformation, as some grammar books might suggest. We have to realize that reported speech represents, in fact, a kind of translation, a transposition that necessarily takes into account two different cognitive perspectives: the point of view of the person whose utterance is being reported, and that of a speaker who is actually reporting that utterance.(Teresa DobrzyÅ„ska, Rendering Metaphor in Reported Speech, in Relative Points of View: Linguistic Representation of Culture, ed. by Magda StroiÅ„ska. Berghahn Books, 2001) Tannen on the Creation of Dialogue I wish to question the conventional American literal conception of reported speech and claim instead that uttering dialogue in conversation is as much a creative act as is the creation of dialogue in fiction and drama.  The casting of thoughts and speech in dialogue creates particular scenes and characters--and . . . it is the particular that moves readers by establishing and building on a sense of identification between speaker or writer and hearer or reader. As teachers of creative writing exhort neophyte writers, the accurate representation of the particular communicates universality, whereas direct attempts to represent universality often communicate nothing. (Deborah Tannen, Talking Voices: Repetition, Dialogue, and Imagery in Conversational Discourse, 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press, 2007) Goffman on Reported Speech [Erving] Goffmans work has proven foundational in the investigation of reported speech itself. While Goffman is not in his own work concerned with the analysis of actual instances of interaction (for a critique, see Schlegoff, 1988), it provides a framework for researchers concerned with investigating reported speech in its most basic environment of occurrence: ordinary conversation. . . .Goffman . . . proposed that reported speech is a natural upshot of a more general phenomenon in interaction: shifts of footing, defined as the alignment of an individual to a particular utterance . . . ([Forms of Talk,] 1981: 227). Goffman is concerned to break down the roles of speaker and hearer into their constituent parts. . . . [O]ur ability to use reported speech stems from the fact that we can adopt different roles within the production format, and it is one of the many ways in which we constantly change footing as we interact . . ..(Rebecca Clift and Elizabeth Holt, Introduction. Reporting T alk: Reported Speech in Interaction. Cambridge University Press, 2007) Reported Speech in Legal Contexts ​[R]eported speech occupies a prominent position in our use of language in the context of the law. Much of what is said in this context has to do with rendering peoples sayings: we report the words that accompany other peoples doings in order to put the latter in the correct perspective. As a consequence, much of our judiciary system, both in the theory and in the practice of law, turns around the ability to prove or disprove the correctness of a verbal account of a situation. The problem is how to summarize that account, from the initial police report to the final imposed sentence, in legally binding terms, so that it can go on the record, that is to say, be reported in its definitive, forever immutable form as part of a case in the books. (Jacob Mey, When Voices Clash: A Study in Literary Pragmatics. Walter de Gruyter, 1998)

What Makes A Self Reliance - 1691 Words

Who is an American that embodies self-reliance and independence? Self-reliance, or independence as an individual, is an uniquely American trait. 2 Thessalonians 3:6-14, relating to this value, says to work hard, urge people to work for their own earning, and not be a burden on others. Without self-reliance, America could not be the country it is today. One person who embodies this American value would be Ulysses S. Grant. Grant showed this quality in his hard work to his family and country. He was an American who personified 2 Thessalonians 2:6-15 due to his self-reliance. What truly is self-reliance? What is self-reliance exactly? Self-reliance, according to the Google Dictionary, means â€Å"reliance on one’s own powers and resources rather than those of others.† This American quality can be traced back to the founding of America. The rough, scattered, English colonies that had to cope with Indian attacks, famine, and uncomfortably cold weather. John Smith, a rough soldier in the Jamestown colony, demanded obedience from the lazy colonists. He declared that any man who did not work could not eat. Enforcing this is directly enforcing Biblical principles, in the Bible verse 2 Thessalonians 3:6-14. To be self-reliant is to have responsibility, do your own work, take care of your finances, education, and self, and earn your own living. The Founding Fathers of our nation emphasized this quality in the form of individualism- the habit or principle of being self-reliant andShow MoreRelatedAutonomy and Self-Reliance: Kant Vs. Emmerson1682 Words   |  7 PagesThe Autonomy of Self-Reliance In the late eighteenth century, with the publication of his theories on morality, Immanuel Kant revolutionized philosophy in a way that greatly impacted the decades of thinkers after him. The result of his influence led to perceptions and interpretations of his ideas reflected in the works of writers all around the world. Kant’s idealism stems from a claim that moral law, a set of innate rules within each individual, gives people the ability to reason, and itRead MoreThe Importance Of Self Reliance By David Thoreau818 Words   |  4 PagesThe Importance of Self Reliance One of the transcendentalist beliefs is that you should rely on yourself. Transcendentalism is a idea that you have to experience and understand nature. It developed in the early 1800’s. It has 5 core beliefs: nonconformity, self reliance, free thought, confidence, and importance of nature. The texts I will use as examples are Excerpts from Walden, and Self-Reliance. The authors of these are Ralph Waldo Emerson, and Henry David Thoreau. Self Reliance helps you surviveRead MoreSelf-Reliance English Essay802 Words   |  4 PagesSelf-Reliance Megan Delgado P.5 Make-up The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines self-reliance as reliance on ones own efforts, and abilities; Personal independence. Synonyms in the thesaurus include aptitude and ability to pertain independence. Yet self-reliance is so much more than its definition or synonyms; It doesnt exactly mean what the word itself states Reliance on oneself. It has a wide variety of interpretation and complexity than any definition provided for youRead MoreImportance Of Self Reliance Essay945 Words   |  4 PagesThe importance of Self-Reliance Introduction Self-reliance is an important part of life, it’s something that everyone should have because everyone will need it at some point in their adult life. Even if some people are more self-reliant than others, everyone should still have at least a little bit of self-reliance. Self-Reliance Definition The Merriam Webster Dictionary definition of self-reliance is â€Å"Reliance on one’s own efforts and abilities†. I agree with that definition, but I only agree withRead MoreTranscendentalism : Ralph Waldo Emerson And Henry David Thoreau967 Words   |  4 Pagesthis quote, â€Å"People... have knowledge about themselves and the world around them that transcends... what they can see, hear, taste, touch or feel†(History). This is a perfect explanation for what a transcendentalist is and what makes them so special. There are several important transcendentalist ideas that were expressed by Emerson and Thoreau, but few are as necessary as these; nature, self-reliance, and life quality. Nature is one of the most essential transcendentalist ideas that Emerson and ThoreauRead MoreSelf Reliance : Individualism Vs. Society Control850 Words   |  4 PagesSelf-Reliance: Individualism vs. Society Control Ralph Waldo Emerson, author of the motivational narrative Self-Reliance was written to teach the readers to follow their individual will instead of conforming to social expectations. Self-Reliance, is considered to be a short narrative that gives the audience a â€Å"pep talk on life,† which gives each individual support and a manual on how to live for those who seek to be individuals in a mass society. Ralph Waldo Emerson, wrote Self-Reliance for thoseRead MoreSelf-reliance: Transcendentalism and Emerson814 Words   |  4 PagesSelf-Reliance Juny Bernadin AML2000 12-Week 2 Professor Andrew Smith October 29, 2011 Thesis Statement Self-Reliance has its value in its boldness, its construction, and mature attitudes toward evenness and letdown. In addition, Emersons confident logic seems impregnable. To Emerson, not only is self-doubt absolutely out of the question, but it is a virtue to believe that everyone believes as you do. He writes that there is no value in life but personal principlesRead MoreWakefulness: Thoreau, Whitman, and Emerson1532 Words   |  7 Pagesintellectual exertion throughout everyday life is essential to becoming self-reliant, creating a more intellectual and better community, and becoming closer to god. Being self-reliant is brought up in many of Thoreau, Emerson, and Whitman’s work and if one wants to understand the idea of Wakefulness, then they need to understand self-reliance. In his book, Walden, Thoreau writes about the idea that in order to be awake, one must be self-reliant. In Walden, Thoreau leaves his life in Concord, MassachusettsRead MoreRalph Waldo Emerson And Emersons Theory Of Transcendentalism865 Words   |  4 PagesSelf-Reliance Self-reliance is defined as the reliance on ones own efforts and abilities. Self-reliance is part of a movement called transcendentalism led by Ralph Waldo Emerson, and other famous figures in history such as Henry David Thoreau, Walt Whitman, and Emily Dickinson. Emerson discusses society, and individuals, and how they relate to the idea of self-reliance. He also recounts the business, religious, government, and family implications of this concept. Through his use of vivid languageRead MoreEmerson Individualism Essay1222 Words   |  5 PagesEmerson begins his major work on individualism by declaring the importance of thinking for oneself instead of humbly acquiring someone else’s belief. Emerson says, â€Å"To believe that what is true in your private heart is true for all men — that is genius†. The one who scorns personal intuition and, instead, chooses to admit others opinions lacks the inventive power necessary for strong, fearless individualism. Emerson sa ys, â€Å"Trust thyself,† a saying that ties along this initial section of the essay

Clear Light of Day - 1606 Words

Tara and Bim attempt to reconcile their childhood dreams with their adult lives and work to resolve the lingering guilt of past family conflicts. When Tara returns for a visit with Bimla and Baba, old memories and tensions resurface and blend into a domestic drama that is intensely beautiful and leads to profound self-understanding. Their struggles with autonomy and independence are echoed in the backdrop of the newly-partitioned nation Plot summary The book is split into four sections covering the Das family from the children’s perspective in this order: adulthood, adolescence, childhood, and the time perspective returns to adulthood. The book centers on the Das family, who have grown apart with adulthood. It starts with Tara, the wife†¦show more content†¦Twenty years ago when Tara married, she left Old Delhi and a home full of sickness and death, while Bim continued to live in the family home, taking care of their autistic brother, Baba. Now Tara has returned, her first visit in ten years, for their niece’s wedding. Bim refuses to attend; she can’t visit their brother Raja who, like Tara, left her many years ago. Instead Bim dwells bitterly on her feelings of abandonment and the impact on her of her country’s recent history: the violent conflict between Hindus and Moslems, the death of Gandhi and the ensuing struggle for political power, and the malaria epidemic that killed so many. In Bim’s presence, Tara once again feels â€Å"herself shrink into that small miserable wretch of twenty years ago, both admiring and resenting her tall striding sister,† while â€Å"Bim w as calmly unaware of any of her sister’s agonies, past or present.† With language that describes both the harshness and beauty of family and the land, Anita Desai takes the reader with Tara and Bim on their struggle to confront and heal old wounds.—For great reviews of books for girls, check outShow MoreRelatedAnita Desai s Clear Light Of Day2326 Words   |  10 PagesEscapism in Anita Desai’s Clear Light of Day Clear Light of Day, written by Anita Desai and published in 1980, tells the story of the siblings of the Das family living in Old Delhi. It tells the story of Bim, the eldest sister - a history professor and caretaker of Baba, their youngest, autistic brother. She is a spinster who seems to have been left behind by everyone. Headstrong, intelligent and apparently sure of her choices, it seems that Bim has had no desire to escape her life. The novel alsoRead MoreClear Light of Day Literary Analysis: The House as a Metaphor1487 Words   |  6 Pages Home Is Where the Heart Is In the book Clear Light of Day, Anita Desai develops an extended metaphor of the Das family house to symbolize the entrapment of the Das children: Bimla, Tara, Raja, and Baba. Desai’s book follows each of the children as they grow up, but when the family gathers at the Das house for Raja’s daughter’s wedding, it is the first time the family had been at the house together since childhood. The house, kept the same through the years, then morphs into a prison, causingRead MoreFamily Feud in Anita Desai ´s Clear Light of Day1339 Words   |  6 Pagesbetween family members. Anita Desai’s Clear Light of Day shows how war, specifically the partition of India, affects a particular family. The partition of Indian in 1947 created the separate countries of India and Pakistan, consequently ripping families apart. The partition, initiated by India’s independence from Britain, attempted to accommodate irreconcilable religious differences between Muslims and Hi ndus by forming the Islamic Pakistan. In Clear Light of Day, the Das children’s relationship withRead More Comparing Tension and Conflict in Things Fall Apart and Clear Light of Day983 Words   |  4 PagesTension and Conflict in Things Fall Apart and Clear Light of Day      Ã‚  Ã‚   How does the tension between traditional and modern views of the world play itself out in Achebes Things Fall Apart, and Desais Clear Light of Day?      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚     In both Achebes and Desais novels, tension and conflict between the new and the old, traditional and modern are the strong undercurrents that move the story and the reader into an unconscious emotional uneasiness.    In both novelsRead MoreEssay about Heroes and Heroism in Anita Desais Clear Light of Day 1299 Words   |  6 PagesHeroes and Heroism in Anita Desais Clear Light of Day      Ã‚  Ã‚   When one asks a child, What do you want to be when you grow up? a usual response is a fireman or a ballerina.   In Anita Desais Clear Light of Day, however, the young Bim and Raja are somewhat more ambitious; they answer that they want to be a hero and heroine.   Later, Bim asks somewhat bitterly, The hero and heroine-where are they?   Down at the bottom of the well-gone, disappeared (157).   Bim has lost track of her heroes;Read MoreEffect of Light Color on Plants1604 Words   |  7 Pagesthey obtain nutritive organic molecules (1), in other words, their food. Plants are denominated as autotrophs, organisms that can produce their own food from abiotic sources surrounding them, such as light, carbon dioxide and water (2). Plants use these three factors in photosynthesis to convert light energy into chemical energy, which is then stored until the plant needs it, or used right away (3). The process of photosynthesis takes place on organelles (substructures inside eukaryotic cells) calledRead MoreClassroom : Description Of Optoma Hd25e Projector1137 Words   |  5 Pagesas it can project clear and colorful images and also can be connected to a computer and project the screen while an overhead projector can only project the image that is set on top of it. The HD25e has four parts the lamp, the color wheel, the DLP chip, and the lens. The lens is the source of light for the HD25e. The color wheel breaks the colors apart and gives the picture the HD25e produces its color. The DLP chip reflects the color to the needed position on the screen. The light passes through lensRead MoreFriday Of The Getty With Paul1007 Words   |  5 Pagesback as the 1300s. I focused on art that was featured in different galleries of the museum including Italian Renaissance era and early Christian work. The paintings that I finally decided to write about were The Portal of Rouen Cathedral i n Morning Light, The Arrival of Saint Ursula at Cologne and An Allegory of Fortune (both Dosso Dossi and Salvator Rosa’s paintings). Dosso Dossi’s An Allegory of Time, painted around 1530, depicts a nude woman, portraying Fortune, facing out toward the viewer, andRead MoreSocial Media Reflection Paper1179 Words   |  5 Pagesthe lady in this text. â€Å"You become what you focus on.† We have to understand this; focus makes vision clear! May we never lose focus (See definition below) of Jesus Christ! May we never lose focus of the vision He has given His body on the earth. Focus: adjustment for distinct vision; also : the area that may be seen distinctly or resolved into a clear image, a state or condition permitting clear perception or understanding , directed attention. Luke 10:38-42 â€Å"Now it came to pass, as they wentRead MoreOil And Gas Industry : The United States Government Restricted The Export Of Domestically Produced Crude Oil1385 Words   |  6 Pagespart to the evolving technologies surrounding hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Between 2009 and 2013, crude oil production in the United States increased by roughly 2.1 million barrels per day and, according to ICF estimates, is projected to increase another 3.2 million barrels per day through 2020 (ICF International 2014). This has led to a high profile discussion regarding the removal of the export ban which peaked in October of this year when President Barack Obama stood firm against

Pros and Cons of Genetically Modified Foods - 2267 Words

Our ancestors first cultivated plants some ten thousand years ago. They domesticated animals later and then selectively bred both plants and animals to meet various requirements for human food. Humans discovered natural biological processes such as fermentation of fruits and grains to make wine and beer, and yeast for baking bread. Manipulation of foods is not a new story, therefore. The latest agricultural discovery uses genetic engineering technology to modify foods. Farmers and plant breeders have been changing crop plants to improve characteristics such as size, resistance to disease and taste. Plants which grow well, have a higher yield or taste better are selected and bred from. This is still the most widely used technique for†¦show more content†¦Transgenic crops are grown commercially or in field trials in over 40 countries and on 6 continents. In 2000, about 109.2 million acres (442,000 km ²) were planted with transgenic crops, the principal ones being herbicide- and insecticide-resistant soybeans, corn, cotton, and canola. Other crops grown commercially or field-tested are a sweet potato resistant to a US strain of a virus that affects one out of the more than 89 different varieties of sweet potato grown in Africa, rice with increased iron and vitamins such as golden rice, and a variety of plants able to survive extreme weather. Between 1996 and 2001, the total surface area of land cultivated with GMOs had increased by a factor of 30, from 17,000 km ² (4.2 million acres) to 520,000 km ² (128 million acres). The value for 2002 was 145 million acres (587,000 km ²) and for 2003 was 167 million acres (676,000 km ²). Soybean crop represented 63% of total surface in 2001, maize 19%, cotton 13% and canola 5%. In 2004, the value was about 200 million acres (809,000 km ²) of which 2/3 were in the United States. In particular, Bt corn is widely grown, as are soybeans genetically designed to tolerate glyphosate herbicides. Future applications of GMOs include bananas that produce human vaccines against infectious diseases such as Hepatitis B, fish that mature more quickly, fruit and nut trees that yield years earlier, and plants that produce new plastics with unique properties. The next decade will see exponentialShow MoreRelatedPros And Cons Of Genetically Modified Food1421 Words   |  6 PagesFood, we need it to survive and thrive. Food is our source of nutrition and energy. When we consume food and water, our body breaks food down into tiny particles and sends the nutrients throughout our bodies through blood. This is called digestion. According to science, nutrients are one of the four requirements of life for all human beings. Every day, we are faced with choices about our foods. Do we eat fast food, healthy, organic or non-organic? Should we eat genetically modified foods and howRead MoreThe Pros And Cons Of Genetically Modified Foods1960 Words   |  8 Pages Over seventy-five percent of the foods that are buy in grocery stores contain a genetically modified ingredient. Humans have been domesticating plants ever since 11,000 BCE. Scientists have been breeding plants together with traits that are considered beneficial to humans and trying to intensify the traits that help humans survive. By altering the genetic structure directly, scientists can efficiently give it specific traits in a more controlled environment and avoid the hit or miss aspect of naturallyRead MoreGenetically Modified Food - Pros Cons2979 Words   |  12 PagesApril 2012 Genetically Modified Food: World Wide Panacea or â€Å"Frankenfood† to Fear? Never before in history has mankind so masterfully commanded its food chain. Thousands of years ago, much of our species made the leap from a hunter-gatherer level of subsistence to an agricultural society. With agriculture, slowly but surely many modifications were made to plants and animals used and domesticated by us for the purpose of feeding ourselves. New specialized varieties with specific desirable traitsRead MorePros and Cons of Genetically Modified Food Essays589 Words   |  3 PagesPros and Cons of genetically modified food, or GMOs Genetically modified foods are a types of foods that have been genetically changed, to add or get rid of an unwanted trait in a food. For example, seedless oranges. This is a type of orange that is genetically modified (had tits genes changed) specifically so it would grow without seeds. Many foods are genetically modified today. Oranges, corn, tomatoes, potatoes, squash, and many others have had their genes changed. In fact, the average personRead MorePros and Cons of Genetically Modified Foods Essay1289 Words   |  6 Pagesand foods. For example, the first time a person tastes a delicious juicy piece of prime rib or a delightful hamburger with cheese and ham, his world is never the same. However, since the beginning of the twentieth century, the production of food has been supplemented by science. This has triggered an angry dispute between the people who support the advances of biotechnology and people who love nature. In order to understand the controversy, we have to know the meaning of genetically modified foodsRead MoreThe Pros And Cons Of Genetically Modified Foods1809 Words   |  8 PagesAs the spread of commercialized genetically modified foods (GMF) products rise, the number of people exposed to genetically modified foods incline globally. The term genetically modified foods can be used interchangeably with transgenic foods, genetically engineered crops (GE) and Recombinant DNA technology and therefore defined as the enhancement of foods in which a gene of interest from one organism is extracted and inserted into the target organisms. (1) The genes of interest may be cells fromRead MoreEssay on Pros And Cons of Genetically Modified Foods3322 Words   |  14 Pagespossible benefits, from helping farmers, to improving foods, to helping the environment, to helping sick people. Genetic engineering may even one day be used to help solve world hunger. However, it also has its dangers and risks, which need to be considered along with its benefits. The fact that not everything is known about genetic engineering, and that large corporations use it to make a profit, is scary to many people. The recent technology of genetically engineering crops, plants, and animals, whichRead MoreThe Pros And Cons Of The Labeling Of Genetically Modified Foods918 Words   |  4 Pagesthan 70% of packaged foods contain GMO in the US market, there are no regulations to mandate the labeling of GM foods by the US government. Currently, the US federal government does not require any mandatory labeling of GM foods, unless the nutrition of GM foods has been changed or some toxins and allergens have been added to the GM foods (McLure). According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (â€Å"FDA†), there are also no mandatory programs to regulate foods from genetically engineered (â€Å"GE†) plantsRead MoreGenetically Modified Foods, Pros and Cons persuasive essay.1883 Words   |  8 Pagesoverpowers the bad. Many experts argue that Genetica lly Modified foods are actually beneficial to, not only people, but animals, plants, and the world overall. Some experts even state that, not only are they beneficial, but that they also protect the environment and aid food productivity. Most farmers actually recommend GMO’s because they are easier to grow, maintain, and tend to be more profitable; however, countless other experts have come to realize that GMO foods are untested, unsafe, and unhealthy.Read MoreHow Is Foods Be Easily Modified?1042 Words   |  5 Pages How can foods be easily modified? Intro: In this essay, we will be talking about how foods can be easily modified (GM foods), how they can affect other people, and to see if it is safe to eat them. Body: As if you did not know, GM foods stands for Genetically Modified foods. That means that scientists take and copy the DNA from an organism (ie; a watermelon), and then they put it in with another organism (ie; a corn), which results the [modified] organism to be in the same colour as the copied

Motivations and realities. Journal of studies in international Educati

Question: Responsibilities of nurse educators to meet the standards of regulatory and accrediting bodies . Legal and ethical implications for faculty who teach in the classroom, in clinical settings with students, and in clinical agencies in the role of Clinical Educator. The concept of due process for students and new nurses deemed unsafe in the clinical setting. The process for managing students and new nurses dishonest actions. How faculty can help students develop a professional attitude or demeanor. How faculty can utilize the faculty student relationship as a tool to support understanding of legal and ethical issues. Potential strategies for managing legal and ethical issues successfull. Answer: Introduction The present scenario of healthcare environment has a demand for nurses to meet the various patient needs. Legal and ethical issues may occur in various professional situations where the question of morality based on the wrongness and rightness may arise. Decision-making has to be done keeping in mind the patients beneficent care. Therefore, the legal and ethical decisions as they affect the nurses often take them through exhausting and stressful conditions of work. Nursing programs deal with the ethical and legal issues throughout the curriculum. Therefore, the clinical instructors have the responsibility to introduce the students to the ethical and legal issues. The present study deals with the subject that how the nurse educator would respond to the legal and ethical issues that one may encounter at the workplace. Responsibilities of nurse educators In the United States, there are fifty-two national and six regional agencies. There are also various other regulatory bodies for governing the legal issues of learning like American Nurses Association. The responsibility of the nurse educator lies with the fact that he needs to meet the standards of the regulatory and accreditation bodies during the curriculum of nursing. The students should get well aware of the goals and objectives of these bodies including the legal and ethical factors to get well prepared before entering the profession (ANA, 2010). The responsibilities of the nurse educator have been listed below. Implementing and developing the standards of accreditation for continuous improvement of the students through the education programs. Ensuring that the education programs meet the expectations of the profession for the legal and ethical requirements. Maintaining and developing the code of ethics for nursing. Maintaining and developing the standards and scope of nursing practice by the regulatory bodies (Altbach Knight, 2007). Development support for the nursing research and theory as laid down by the accreditation bodies for explaining the observations and guiding the practice of nursing. Explaining the requirements of education as needed for the professional practice. Defining the competence of professional role a nurse has to overcome, as one faces emergencies. Development of resources and programs for establishing the articulate of nurses accountability to the practice policy, society and governmental advocacy (Aacn.nche.edu, 2016). Legal and Ethical Implications The legal and ethical issues of nursing education are primarily based on the student, the faculty and the educational program. In the case of clinical settings and agencies, the legal and ethical issues of the site have also been brought into consideration. Faculty collects this information and to conform to the requirement of the clinical agencies for the implementation of the legal and ethical issues. The nursing educators pave the path for the future professional nurses from various settings and classrooms. The nurse educator should be able to define legally and describe the laws, both case and statutory, which governs the nursing education. The students and the faculty should share the governance. Academic freedom should be provided in the clinical and class settings. The faculty should build up a strategy to build up gaps between the educational syllabus and the professional settings. This will help to imply the ethical and legal issues effectively (Billings Halstead, 2013). Changes are happening in the nursing practice. Accordingly, there should be changes in the educational system as well. Ethical conducts generally do not undergo huge changes, but the legal issues can be modified. The ethical issues can be addressed by drawing real life situations and case studies whereas the legal issues can be explained by teaching from the various sources, dealing with the nursing law. The faculty should make a critical appraisal and systemic approach for the clinical conditions related to the ethical and legal issues. Setting examples of the faculty's expertise and experience, he can implement the issues among the students from various settings. However, the students of clinical settings and agencies are exposed to various types of data and their relative analysis can help the student to understand better the conditions of implementation (Berner, 2007). The classroom students can be benefitted by the case studies they undertake and implement the issues as per their understandings. These implementations help to develop the nursing skills of the students from various settings. Due Process for Students Due process is intended to assure that the rights of the students are respected as per the situation. Due process is of two types. The substantive due process deals with the determining the relation of the outcome, the degree of fairness in it, with the infraction. It is done to determine the whether the seriousness of the crime suits the punishment. The second type is a procedural due process. This provides the accused with the facility of receiving notice and an opportunity of being heard. It is based on the principle that decisions should be fair, nondiscriminatory and objective (Clark, 2008). The due process is employed when a student breaches or violates the code of the conduct of the nursing students. Any misconduct done is handled individually with the due process. Depending upon the severity of the misconduct, the punishment is delivered. However, the student is also given an opportunity for explanation of his misconduct, as per the rules of the litigation. The case is individually handled for application of the due process (Anselmi, Glasgow Gambescia, 2014). Unsafe Nurses in the Clinical Settings Nurses prone to disorders of substance use may be deemed as unsafe in the clinical settings. Their disorder may have a direct impact on their work and performance. Alternative programs have been designed to recover the nurses from the disorders of substance use or mental disorders. These programs help the nurses to be monitored and the risks of practice get reduced (Killam, Luhanga Bakker, 2011). It is the responsibility of the nurse educator to train up nurses for ultimate patient care. The legal and ethical responsibility involves the recognition of the signs and symptoms of unsafe practice, which might affect the safety of the patients in future (Grube, Piliavin Turner, 2010). Several observational tools can be implemented to monitor the unprofessional practice of the unsafe nurses in the clinical settings and separate them from other nurses (Luhanga et al., 2014). Managing Nursing Students and Dishonest Actions Nursing students and new nurses are expected to have an ethical and professional behavior, as the society has faith on them as competent providers of care. Unethical behavior and dishonesty include cheating and dishonest behaviors. Cheating in the academic career can be potentially disastrous as the nurse fails to gather requisite information regarding the safe care of human beings. This may lead to harm, suffering and even death of the patient (Suplee et al., 2008). Various strategies can be adopted to prevent dishonesty among the students and new nurses. The first strategy is the development of administrative policies. Academic policies may be created as the preventive measures. The legal department should review the contents of the document. These policies must be on display everywhere and at every possible accessible point. Consequences for repeated offenses should also be clearly mentioned. The faculty should well incorporate the behavioral expectations from the students (Killam et al., 2012). The second strategy is faculty development or education. These empower the faculty to address the dishonest behaviors in all setting types. Developing the assertiveness of the faculty in the environments of teaching is important so that he can have a control and strong monitoring of his class. The third strategy is setting up of the ground rules. Many times the dishonest behavior originates from the misinterpretation of the guidelines and grading of the assignments. Therefore, the faculty members should review the ground rules and display them in the syllabus in the clinical settings and classroom (Marshall, 2013). Development of Professional Attitude and Demeanor Nursing is much more than a series of skills and business activities. It is regarded as a part of socialization, which leads to the development and internalization of the identity as a nurse. The nursing profession is much concerned with the development of professional attitude and behavior. The faculty has many contributions to the development of the professional attitude (Mitchell, 2010). The program objectives are so designed that they aim at the development of the students. A few of the attitudes and demeanors have been discussed below. Dependability Nursing professionals are expected to be responsible and professional for carrying out the needs and duties. For this, the faculty must train them to be punctual and responsible towards their curriculum and assignments. Professional presentation The nurses should present themselves in such a way that is accepted by clients, employers and peers. For this, the faculty should develop a program for professional development of personality and train accordingly. Cooperation Teamwork is very essential in nursing. The nurses may require working in multidisciplinary, transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary teams. For this, the faculty should arrange group activities to develop this habit of teamwork. Clinical Reasoning The process of inquiry in the clinical practice of nursing is called clinical reasoning. Experience, knowledge and problem solving abilities are essential to encounter difficult and emergency situations. For this, the faculty should assign the students case studies to develop an estimation of the clinical reasoning in the profession of nursing (Griffiths et al., 2012). Faculty-Student Relationship The student faculty relationship is very important from the view of learning. The educational experience quality strongly depends on this relationship. This relationship helps in understanding the legal and ethical issues and helps in student success. Faculties in various settings face students whose learning needs and backgrounds are diverse. Therefore, it becomes very important to make them understand the legal and ethical issues (Priest et al., 2007). Developing a healthy relationship with them helps them to understand these issues and apply them professionally. The faculty should develop an environment of learning that encourages positive and collaborative faculty-student interactions. These will serve as an effective tool to develop strategies for active participations of students in understanding the legal and ethical issues (Hamric et al., 2013). Open communication with the students and application of learning activities helps in developing a student-faculty relationship. A positive relationship will facilitate better learning of the nursing curriculum (Ganske, 2010). Potential Strategies Professional nurses face many challenges in their practice. This challenge helps them to grow and contribute to the health of the society. However, several legal and ethical issues are faced by the nurses, which they have to manage strategically. Some of the potential strategies have been discussed below. Protecting the interests of the patient and ensuring quality care for nursing to the patients is an essential part of ethical management. The nurses should be provided more competence to face these ethical challenges to manage them. Using personal experience and values, patients rights and discussion with the management can be another potential strategy to manage the ethical issues (Marquis Huston, 2009). The legal issues can be managed by having a deep knowledge and understanding the nursing laws. In the case of a procedure for a patient, informed consent is essential. Potential legal risks can be managed and avoided if the signature is done before the procedure and everything is well documented (Park et al., 2014). Allegations of abuse should be managed by reporting them to the concerned authority. HIPAA laws should be well known by the nurses to manage problems regarding patient privacy. Medication errors and further litigation can be managed by having the correct knowledge of dosing and treatment regime (Furlong, 2008). References Altbach, P. G., Knight, J. (2007). The internationalization of higher education: Motivations and realities.Journal of studies in international education,11(3-4), 290-305. American Association of Colleges of Nursing | Home. (2016).Aacn.nche.edu. Retrieved 5 March 2016, from https://www.aacn.nche.edu American Nurses Association. (2010).Nursing's social policy statement: The essence of the profession. Nursesbooks. org. Anselmi, K. K., Glasgow, M. E. S., Gambescia, S. F. (2014). Using a nursing student conduct committee to foster professionalism among nursing students.Journal of Professional Nursing : Official Journal of the American Association of Colleges of Nursing,30(6), 481-485. doi:10.1016/j.profnurs.2014.04.002 Berner, E. S. (2007).Clinical decision support systems(pp. 3-22). New York: Springer Science+ Business Media, LLC. Billings, D. M., Halstead, J. A. (2013).Teaching in nursing: A guide for faculty. Elsevier Health Sciences. Clark, C. M. (2008). Student voices on faculty incivility in nursing education: A conceptual model.Nursing Education Perspectives,29(5), 284-289. Furlong, E. (2008). Right or wrong: legal and ethical issues and decision making.Decision-making in nursing: thoughtful approaches for practice. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, 29-46. Ganske, K. M. (2010). Moral distress in academia.OJIN: The Online Journal of Issues in Nursing,15(3), 6. Griffiths, J., Speed, S., Horne, M., Keeley, P. (2012). A caring professional attitude: What service users and carers seek in graduate nurses and the challenge for educators.Nurse Education Today,32(2), 121-127. doi:10.1016/j.nedt.2011.06.005 Grube, J. A., Piliavin, J. A., Turner, J. W. (2010). The courage of one's conviction: When do nurse practitioners report unsafe practices?Health Communication,25(2), 155-164. doi:10.1080/10410230903544944 Hamric, A. B., Hanson, C. M., Tracy, M. F., O'Grady, E. T. (2013).Advanced practice nursing: An integrative approach. Elsevier Health Sciences. Killam, L. A., Luhanga, F., Bakker, D. (2011). Characteristics of unsafe undergraduate nursing students in clinical practice: an integrative literature review.Journal of Nursing Education,50(8), 437-446. Killam, L. A., Montgomery, P., Raymond, J. M., Mossey, S., Timmermans, K. E., Binette, J. (2012). Unsafe clinical practices as perceived by final year baccalaureate nursing students: Q methodology.BMC Nursing,11(1), 26-26. doi:10.1186/1472-6955-11-26 Luhanga, F., Koren, I., Yonge, O., Myrick, F. (2014). Strategies for managing unsafe precepted nursing students: A nursing faculty perspective.Journal of Nursing Education and Practice,4(5), 116. Marquis, B. L., Huston, C. J. (2009).Leadership roles and management functions in nursing: Theory and application. Lippincott Williams Wilkins. Marshall, D. J. (2013).Adjunct nursing faculty perceptions of and reactions to unethical or dishonest nursing student behaviors in the classroom and clinical areas. University of Florida. Mitchell, C. (2010). Teaching in Nursing: A Guide for Faculty.Nursing Education Perspectives,31(2), 120-121. Park, M., Jeon, S. H., Hong, H., Cho, S. (2014). A comparison of ethical issues in nursing practice across nursing units.Nursing Ethics,21(5), 594-607. doi:10.1177/0969733013513212 Priest, C., Kooken, W. C., Ealey, K. L., Holmes, S. R., Hufeld, P. (2007). Improving baccalaureate nursing students' understanding of fundamental legal issues through interdisciplinary collaboration.Journal of Nursing Law,11(1), 35. Suplee, P. D., Lachman, V. D., Siebert, B., Anselmi, K. K. (2008). Managing nursing student incivility in the classroom, clinical setting, and on-line.Journal of Nursing Law,12(2), 68-77.

Manager’s Guide to Forecasting free essay sample

Manager’s Guide to Forecasting by David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick Harvard Business Review Reprint 86104 J A N U A RY– F E B R U A RY 1 9 8 6 HBR Manager’s Guide to Forecasting David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick E arly in 1984, the Houston-based COMPAQ Computer Corporation, manufacturer of IBMcompatible microcomputers, faced a decision that would profoundly affect its future. Recognizing that IBM would soon introduce its version of the portable computer and threaten COMPAQ’s dominance in this profitable market, the company had two options. It could elect to specialize in this product line and continue to market its highly regarded portables aggressively, or it could expand market offerings to include desktop microcomputers. The latter move would force the year-old company to confront IBM on its home ground. Moreover, COMPAQ would have to make a substantial investment in product development and working capital and expand its organization and manufacturing capacity. COMPAQ’s management faced several important unknowns, including the potential market’s size, structure, and competitive intensity. Management recognized that the company’s vitality might seriously erode if it did not expand its product line. If the expansion were successful, COMPAQ might enjoy economies of scale that could help ensure its survival in a dynamic and very competitive industry. If COMPAQ’s market assumptions were incorrect, however, its future might be bleak. Many of today’s managers face similar new market realities and uncertainties. Continually confronted with issues critical to their companies’ competitive future, they must deal with novel and rapidly changing environments. In short, they must judge a broad range of dissimilar influences. For more than a decade, new forecasting techniques have theoretically helped managers evaluate these varied factors. Much of the promise of these techniques has been unrealized, however, even as a quickening succession of related advances have been overwhelming decision makers with new alternatives. As the number of techniques proliferates, management also realizes that some of its crucial assumptions and projections about the economy have become quite tenuous. Equipped only with a little history, meager and questionable data, and frail and changing theoretical tools, the forecaster must nevertheless make critical decisions about altered futures. As an example, COMPAQ Computer’s quandary was further complicated because new technologies, competitors, and products were already transforming Mr. Georgoff is professor of marketing at Florida Atlantic University and chairman of the Department of Management, Marketing, and International Business. He has published articles and worked as a consultant to large corporations in the areas of new product marketing, marketing planning, market research, and forecasting. Mr. Murdick is professor of management at Florida Atlantic University. Previously he worked at the General Electric Company for 14 years. Well known in the field of management information systems, he is the author or coauthor of 18 books on management and marketing, the most recent of which is MIS: Concepts and Design (Prentice-Hall, second edition, 1986). Authors’ note: We thank Steven C. Wheelwright for his valuable assistance in the preparation of this article. Copyright  © 1986 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. Manager’s Guide to Forecasting Brief descriptions of methods Counting methods Time series methods Association or causal methods *Dev = Development time Ex = Execution time Indicates strength Time series decomposition: a prediction of expected outcomes from trend, seasonal, cyclical, and random components, which are isolated from a data series. Correlation methods: predictions of values based on historic patterns of covariation between variables. Input-output models: a matrix model that indicates how demand changes in one industry can directly and cumulatively affect other industries. Judgment methods Market testing: representative buyers’ responses to new offerings, tested and extrapolated to estimate the products’ future prospects. Moving averages: recent values of the forecast variables averaged to preduct future outcomes. Naive extrapolation: the application of a simple assumption about the economic outcome of the next time period, or a simple, if subjective, extension of the results of current events. Consumer market survey: attitudinal and purchase intentions data gathered from representative buyers. Industrial market survey: data similar to consumer surveys but fewer, more knowledgeable subjects sampled, resulting in more informed evaluations. Adaptive filtering: a derivation of a weighted combination of actual and estimated outcomes, systematically altered to reflect data pattern changes. Box-Jenkins: a complex, computer-based iterative procedure that produces an autoregressive, integrated moving average model, adjusts for seasonal and trend factors, estimates appropriate weighting parameters, tests the model, and repeats the cycle as appropriate. Exponential smoothing: an estimate for the coming period based on a constantly weighted combination of the forecast estimate for the previous period and the most recent outcome. Regression models: estimates produced from a predictive equation derived by minimizing the residual variance of one or more predictor (independent) variable. Leading indicators: forecasts generated from one or more preceding variable that is systematically related to the variable to be predicted. Delphi technique: a successive series of estimates independently developed by a group of â€Å"experts† each member of which, at each step in the process, uses a summary of the group’s previous results to formulate new estimates. Indicates weakness Sales-force composite: a compilation of estimates by salespeople (or dealers) of expected sales in their territories, adjusted for presumed biases and expected changes. Historical analogy: predictions based on elements of past events that are analogous to the present situation. Jury of executive opinion: the consensus of a group of â€Å"experts,† often from a variety of functional areas within a company. Time series extrapolation: a prediction of outcomes derived from the future extension of a least squares function fitted to a data series that uses time as an independent variable. Scenario methods: smoothly unfolding narratives that describe an assumed future expressed through a sequence of time frames or snapshots. Econometric models: outcomes forecast from an integrated system of simultaneous equations that represent relationships among elements of the national economy derived from combining history and economic theory. Dimensions Questions Judgment methods Naive extrapolation Sales-force composite Short or Medium Jury of executive opinion Short or Medium Qualitative Scenario methods Delphi technique Medium or Long Medium or Long Historical analogy Medium or Long Counting methods Market testing Market survey Consumer market survey Medium Medium Industrial market survey Medium or Long Time Span Is the forecast period a: Present need, or Short-, Medium-, or Long-term projection? Is the forecast needed immediately? Present need to Medium Urgency Rapid results are a strong advantage of this technique. * Dev Short Ex Short Forecast can be assembled, combined, and adjusted relatively quickly. Dev Short Ex Moderate In-house group forecasts are quicker than outside experts’. Dev Short Ex Short to Moderate Urgency seriously compromises quality. Dev Moderate to Long Ex Moderate Urgency seriously compromises quality. Dev Moderate Ex Moderate to Long Forecast can be computed quickly if data are available; data gathering may cause delay. Dev Moderate Ex Moderate Substantial lag is involved. Dev Moderate Ex Long to Extended Method of gathering data may cause a substantial time lag. Dev Moderate Ex Long to Extended Frequency Are frequent forecast updates needed? Can easily accommodate frequent updates. Forecast can be Can accomplish quickly compiled, quickly. but data collection restricts rapidity. Frequency need is moderate; updates are generally provided as need arises. Usually used for one-time forecasts, but they can be revised as new information becomes available. Depending on Extended, basically used for methodology, one-time forecasts. requent updates are possible, but updates are generally provided at extended intervals. Sophistication Technical level is variable, competencies are but some generally needed. quantitative skill is desirable. Resource Mathematical require- sophistication ments Are quantitative skills limited? Minimal quantitative capabilities are required. Computer capabilities are not essential. Very inexpensive to implement and maintain. Nominal processing does not require a computer. Inexpensive to implement and maintain. Financial requirements are nominal for executive groups; they may be higher for outside experts. Usually expensive Expense depends for thorough on makeup and efforts. affiliation of participants. Computer Are computer capabilities limited? Are only limited financial resources available? A computer may be helpful. A computer is generally needed for data analysis. Generally expensive for good controls. Moderately expensive, depending on controls. Financial If data are readily Generally very available, expensive. out-of-pocket costs are minimal. Input Antecedent Are only limited past data available? Does the primary series fluctuate substantially? Some past data are required, but extended history is not essential. Has difficulty adequately handling wide fluctuations. Past data are helpful but not always essential. Does not handle fluctuations well but can accommodate them if the panel meets frequently. Significant changes are frequently not transmitted and/or realistically reflected. Generally has difficulty realistically reflecting changes. If changes come from an internal corporate group, technique can readily reflect them. Technique’s extended view dampens impact of short-run influences and random variability. Extended history is essential. Past data are useful but not essential. Substantial fluctuations limit the accuracy of projections. Handles fluctuations poorly, but tracking improves performance. Generally cannot validly reflect changes. Past data very helpful but not essential. Wide fluctuations are frequently a significant concern. Variability Internal consistency Are significant changes in management decisions expected? Can reflect changes. Can readily reflect Can Can crudely internal changes. accommodate reflect changes at changes, but ease best. of reflecting them depends on group’s background. Can handle changes, but forecast quality can vary substantially. Can accommodate shifts crudely. Can reflect changes well if they are incorporated into original research design. If changes are recognized, adjustments can be made. External consistency Are significant environmental changes expected? Are significant shifts expected among variable relationships? Can reflect changes, but quality can also vary substantially. Often insensitive to shifts. Reflects changes Reflects changes well; technique well. combines a range of expertise. Usually aware of shifts and can reflect them in the forecast. Adapts well to shifts. Seriously weak in Ease of handling handling changes. changes depends on consumers’ awareness and interpretation. Seriously weak in accommodating shifts. Handles detail but scope can be limited. Seldom reflects significant shifts. Reflects changes indirectly; it is frequently very sensitive to them. If carefully controlled, can handle shifts well. External stability Output Detail Are component Focus can be forecasts required? readily restricted. Can often provide Can reflect useful component breakdowns. forecasts, but is generally concerned with aggregate forecasts. Can be very accurate or subject to substantial bias. May be most accurate under dynamic conditions. Generally confined to aggregate forecasts. Accuracy Is a high level of accuracy critical? Often provides a limited practical level of accuracy. Not particularly accurate, but usually most accurate when horizons are extended and conditions are dynamic. Can readily adjust if recognized, but long time horizon often precludes the need. Inferential relationships are often tenuous; predictions are suspect. Provides highest accuracy in new product and limited data conditions. Has limited Can be most predictability with accurate approach durables, in special cases. somewhat better with nondurables. Capability for Should turning Can be very reflecting points be reflected responsive to direction changes promptly? hifts. Responsive, but this is not one of its purposes. Often highly responsive to demand shifts. Should turning Capability for detecting points be direction changes identified early? Apt to miss turning points. Early turning point identification can be a strength under dynamic conditions. Can detect cyclical turning points early under dynamic conditions, but long time hor izon often precludes the need. Technique is subjective, but distributions are an inherent part of technique. Can only predict Early turning point noncyclical points identification is very crudely. not a purpose or capability of this technique. Can be responsive to turning points but usually cannot anticipate them. Can be very sensitive to turning points. Form Is an interval or probabilistic forecast critical? Provides point forecast with crude estimated range. Can only provide crude, subjectively determined probabilistic forecast. Only subjectively determined approximate range or frequency distribution is possible. Can provide In limited situations, only an interval estimates. approximate range can be furnished. With probability sampling, accommodates any desired form. A B C D E F G H I 4 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 Time series methods Moving averages Exponential smoothing Adaptive filtering Short or Medium Time series extrapolation Time series decomposition Box-Jenkins Association or Causal methods Correlation methods Regression models Leading indicators Econometric models Input-output models Short, Medium, or Present need to Long Short or Medium Short, Medium, or Short or Medium Long Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Medium or Long Long Long Long Long Long 1 Rapid results are a strong advantage of this technique. Dev Short Ex Short Forecast can be produced quickly once programmed and past data are available. Dev Moderate Ex Short Computation is quick if data are available; data gathering can cause delays. Dev Short to Moderate Ex Short Program setup and data gathering may cause delays, but once programmed, computation is quick. Dev Moderate Ex Short Operationalizing program can take time, but forecast can be produced quickly. Dev Long Ex Moderate Data evaluation may cause delays, but forecast computation is quick. Dev Moderate Ex Short to Moderate Model formulation takes time, but forecast computation is quick. Dev Moderate to Long Ex Short to Moderate Data evaluation may cause delays, but forecast computation is quick. Dev Moderate Ex Short to Moderate Model building is lengthy, but producing forecast is quick. Dev Long to Extended Ex Short to Moderate Forecast can be updated quickly if data are available. Original model may require up to a year to develop. Dev Extended Ex Short to Moderate 2 Forecast can be systematically updated easily. 3 Minimal quantitative capabilities are required. A computer is helpful for repetitive updating. If data are readily available, out-of-pocket costs are minimal. A fundamental competency level is required. A high level of understanding is required. A fundamental competency level is required. A high level of understanding is required. 4 A computer is essential. A computer is helpful for repetitive updating. If data are readily available, out-of-pocket costs are minimal. Moderately expensive to acquire, develop, and modify. A computer is essential. A computer is desirable. A computer is essential for most cases. A computer is essential for all cases. Development costs are substantial; operating costs are moderate. 5 Forecast is moderately expensive to develop. Acquisition and If data are on modification costs hand, are expensive. development costs are moderate. 6 Past history is essential. Only recent forecasts and current data are required once alpha is determined. Can accommodate fluctuations with suitable alpha. Past history is essential although detail and extent vary. Past history is essential with some detail required. Past history is essential with detail required. Extended history is helpful in initial development. Extended detailed history is required. 7 Can accommodate fluctuations with appropriate averaging period. Cannot validly reflect changes. Absorbs random fluctuations and adjusts to systematic shifts. Wide fluctuations result in decreased confidence in projected outcomes. Can isolate and Handles determine the variability level of effectively. component effects. Technique is good if covariation is high; otherwise it is poor. May handle large Can readily adjust to systematic and fluctuations well with appropriate random patterns. independent variables. Insensitive to changes, but they can be reflected among predictor variables. Insensitive to changes unless they are reflected in the indicators. Time lag further reduces accuracy. 8 Insensitive to significant changes unless they are correlated with predictor variables. Can only moderately reflect changes with prior trend. Cannot validly reflect changes. Can only moderately reflect changes with prior trend. Insensitive unless they are related to predictor variables. Insensitive to changes. 9 Cannot validly reflect changes. Handles changes well if they are appropriately reflected in predictor variables. Sensitive to changes if they are reflected in appropriate indicators. Highly sensitive to Can be modified relevant changes. to reflect changes. 10 Cannot validly reflect shifts. Can only moderately reflect shifts with prior trend. Cannot validly reflect shifts. Can only moderately reflect shifts with prior trend. Predictive accuracy is weakened if shifts occur. A restricted focus might substantially compromise technique’s productive accuracy. Focus can be readily restricted, depending on indicators used. Generally confined to aggregate forecasts. Cannot validly reflect shifts without updated coefficients. Effectively reflects demand by SIC groups. 11 Focus can be readily restricted. 12 Accurate under stable conditions. Generally rates high in accuracy for short-term forecasts. Normally accurate for trends and stationary series. Effectively isolates Frequently the identifiable most accurate for components. short-to-mediumrange forecasts. Predictive accuracy can vary widely. Can be accurate if variable relationships are stable and the proportion of explained variance is high. Sensitive to changes once they are identified. Only moderately accurate under most conditions. Give spotty performances in dynamic environments. With stable relationships, predictive accuracy can be very good. 13 Variable lags always exist. Depending on alpha value, can be very responsive. Deals very well Very unresponsive. Generally with systematic responds slowly. shifts in variables. When points are identified, adjusts quickly. Can adapt quickly to turning points. 14 Especially effective in forecasting cyclical changes. Probability range is easily constructed. Confidence limits are provided. Cannot anticipate turning points but can effectively predict outcomes. Confidence limits can be developed. Cannot anticipate turning points. Generally cannot predict turning points unless series lags. Generally only provides point forecast. Probability range is easily constructed. A weak predictive Can predict ability is possible. turning points only if a lagged relationship exists. If relationships are stable, can effectively predict turning points. Confidence limits are provided. 15 Confidence limits can be easily derived based on variability of data series. 6 J K L M N O P Q R S T HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 5 a market that had been only recently established. COMPAQ’s forecast of the size, direction, and price trends of the 1984 microcomputer market was confounded by uncertainties about the market’s response to several vital factors:. The entry of IBM’s new portab le computer. IBM’s 23% price cut in June 1984 and its potential erosion of margins. The entry of lap portables introduced by Hewlett-Packard and Data General. The launch of IBM’s new PC AT, complicated by unexpected delivery delays and compatibility problems. The introduction of desktop computers by Sperry, NCR, ITT, and ATT. Eventually, COMPAQ entered the desktop segment of the market, even though 1984 was unforgiving and rampageous. Several large competitors restricted their programs; many smaller companies went into—or to the edge of—receivership. Financially and competitively, COMPAQ succeeded. During 1984, sales rose from $111 million to $329 million and earnings increased from $4. 7 million to $12. 8 million. The market’s dynamics, however, make such results increasingly difficult to achieve; positive and negative events—both expected and unforeseen—have a decisive effect. Even when managers anticipate outcomes, grave uncertainties about timing, form, and impact persist. Despite the difficulty, the vice president of marketing and the CEO—the two executives most directly involved with the decision—demonstrated what can be done. They used an extended series of consumer and dealer surveys coupled with periodic evaluations of the technology to assess the future market and to guide the development of products and programs to accommodate the industry’s fluid and rapidly evolving needs. Managers can use forecasting techniques to help them reach important decisions. A large and fast-growing body of research deals with the development, refinement, and evaluation of forecast techniques. Managers also have greater access to both internal and external data and can benefit from a multitude of computer software programs on the market, as well as easier access to computer capabilities for analyzing these data. FORECASTER’S CHART While each technique has strengths and weaknesses, every forecasting situation is limited by constraints like time, funds, competencies, or data. Balancing the advantages and disadvantages of techniques with re6 ard to a situation’s limitations and requirements is a formidable but important management task. We have developed a chart to help executives decide which technique will be appropriate to a particular situation; the chart groups and profiles a diverse list of 20 common forecasting approaches and arrays them against 16 important evaluative dimensions. We list techniques in columns and dimensions of evaluati on in rows. Individual row-column intersections (cells) reflect our view of a technique’s characteristics as they apply to each dimension. Brief descriptions of the forecasting methods are given on the chart. We have used different shades of gray to show which dimensions represent a strength for a particular technique and which represent its weaknesses. The strengths are highlighted in light gray; weaknesses are indicated by a dark gray cell. Naive extrapolation, for example, is strong in internal consistency in that it easily reflects changes in management decisions. It is weak, however, in forecast form. It is important to keep these distinctions in mind when you are using the chart. The chart is useful in two ways. The first is in deciding which technique will suit your particular needs as a forecaster. The second is in deciding how to combine techniques to further improve the result. In this section, we discuss the simpler approach; we talk more about combining methods later. To use the chart, look at the 16 questions listed in the first column after the dimensions. They are the most common questions a manager will ask when deciding to use a certain forecast. The first question sets out the various time spans a forecast would have to cover. Everyone who uses the chart will have to answer question 1. But each of the following questions can be answered with a yes or no. If you answer no to a question, you don’t have to look across that row. In responding to question 1, make note of those techniques whose time span matches your needs. We have found it easiest for forecasters to write down the technique’s column letter. The row number of each dimension and the column letter of each technique are written along the horizontal and vertical axes. With regard to question 1, for example, if your forecast horizon is short-term, you can write down the cell letters for naive extrapolation (A), sales-force composite (B), jury of executive opinion (C), and so forth. But you would ignore the letters for scenario methods (D), Delphi technique (E), historical analogy (F), and so on. The columns you have now listed represent techniques that are qualified for further consideration. Next read down the column of each of these techniques and note any gray cells. If these gray cells are HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 ssociated with questions to which you have answered yes, then the dimension either precludes use of the technique or the technique can be used but it has difficulty accommodating that dimension. Such precautions will help you determine whether you must—or wish to—eliminate certain techniques from further consideration. An arrow in a cell indicates that its evaluation is the same as the cell to its left. After you have answered all the questions and have a list of surviving techniques, note the cells that are highlighted in light gray. Those cells represent specific strengths of a technique and can guide you in making a final selection. In the course of the exercise, you may have eliminated a technique that you like, have heard about, or routinely use. You can go back to that one and compare its strengths and weaknesses with those of the methods that the chart has indicated would be best for you. You can then decide whether you would rather proceed with the technique that the chart indicates corresponds most closely to your specific requirements or whether you can accommodate the eliminating factors in order to use the technique that you initially favored. Important Considerations When considering each question, you should remember some â€Å"tricks of the trade† concerning: Time horizon. Most managers will want the forecast results to extend as far into the future as possible. Too long a period, however, may make the technique selection process even more confusing because of the varying abilities of the techniques to accommodate different time spans. In choosing an extended time horizon, the forecaster increases the complexity, cost, and time required to develop the final product. You can break down the time needed to produce a forecast into development (Dev) and execution (Ex) time. Development time includes the gathering and entry of data, the modification of programs to the company’s specific requirements, and the start-up of the system. Execution time is the time it takes to produce a forecast with a particular technique. Initially, of course, development time is a significant concern for the forecaster; once the forecast technique is firmly established, however, execution time is a more appropriate concern. Technical sophistication. Experience shows that computer and mathematical sophistication is integral to many techniques. Although many executives have improved their skills in this area, not all have sharpened their quantitative skills enough to be comfortable with some of the forecast results a computer will spill out. Cost. The cost of any technique is generally more HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 important at the beginning when it is being developed and installed; after that, any technique’s potential value to a decision maker usually exceeds the expense of generating an updated forecast. Data availability. Before choosing a technique, the forecaster must consider the extensiveness, currency, accuracy, and representativeness of the available data. More data tend to improve accuracy, and detailed data are more valuable than those presented in the aggregate. Because a technique’s ability to handle fluctuations is important to a forecast’s success, the manager must match the sensitivity and stability of a technique to the random and systematic variability components of a data series. Variability and consistency of data. Beyond changes that might occur in the company’s structure or its environment, the manager must look at the kind of stable relationships assumed among a model’s independent variables (represented by the â€Å"external stability† dimension). For example, while most historically oriented quantitative forecasts might use expected levels of automobile production as a basis for determining demand for steel, the forecast model may not reflect changes over time in the average amount of steel used in automobiles. These relationships sometimes do change, but any variation is usually so gradual that it will not affect a short-term forecast. When the forecasts are long-term, however, or when the company expects a substantial change in a vital relationship, the forecaster should either apply judgment in a quantitative technique or use a qualitative method. Amount of detail necessary. While aggregate forecasts are easy to prepare, the manager will need specific information (including individual product classes, time periods, geographic areas, or productmarket groupings, for example) to determine quotas or allocate resources. Since forecasts vary widely in their ability to handle such detail, the manager may want a technique that can accurately predict individual components and then combine the results into an overall picture. Otherwise, the forecaster can use one technique to provide an overall picture and then use past patterns or market factors to determine the component forecasts. 1 Accuracy. While accuracy is a forecaster’s holy grail, the maximum accuracy one can expect from a technique must fall within a range bounded by the average percentage error of the random component of a data series. Also, because of self-defeating and selffulfilling prophecies, accuracy must be judged in light of the control the company has over the predicted outcome and within the time and resource constraints imposed on the forecaster. Remember also that accuracy alone is not the most important criterion. The forecaster may wish to forgo 7 Forecasting Strategies [There are] three basic strategies of forecasting. . . . The deterministic strategy assumes that the present has a close causal relation to the future. This is the strategy that would be used by a cardsharp, who had stacked the deck of cards, to predict the deal. In economic forecasting, the strategy would be used to predict construction expenditures by a knowledge of construction contract awards already made. The symptomatic strategy assumes that present signs show how the future is developing; such signs do not â€Å"determine† the future but reveal the process of change that is already taking place. Thus, a falling barometer may reveal a coming storm, or a rising body thermometer an incipient illness. In economic forecasting, this strategy calls for the spotting of â€Å"leading indicators†Ã¢â‚¬â€time series whose movements foreshadow rises or declines in general business activity. The systematic strategy assumes that, though changes in the real world may seem accidental or chaotic, careful analysis can reveal certain underlying regularities (sometimes called principles, theories, or laws). The way to find these regularities is to black out much of reality and hold only to the abstractions that make up a system, such as a solar system, or a nuclear system, or an economic system. Though the theories that result from this process of abstraction are â€Å"unreal,† they may nevertheless possess the power to affect the real world—provided, of course, that the theories are sound. The test of the soundness of a theory is how it measures up when applied to reality: An atomic explosion confirms Einstein’s E = mc2. Similarly, a price cut that leds to increased sales confirms the hypothetical demand curve that no man has ever seen outside an economics textbook. To be sure, economic â€Å"laws† do not have the consistency of those in the physical sciences. Nevertheless, economic relations or theories, derived from a study of the past, may be useful tools for prediction, within some acceptable range of probable error. From Business Forecasting: With a Guide to Sources of Business Data by Leonard S. Silk and M. Louise Curley (New York: Random House, 1970), p. 3. Copyright  © 1970 by Random House, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of the publisher. some accuracy in favor of, for example, a technique that signals turning points or provides good supplemental information. Turning points. Because turning points represent periods of exceptional opportunity or caution, the manager will want to analyze whether a technique anticipates fundamental shifts. Some techniques give false turn signals, so the forecaster must keep in mind not only a technique’s ability to anticipate changes but also its propensity to give erroneous information. Form. Final form varies greatly; it is always advisable to use a technique that provides some kind of mean or central value and a range of possible outcomes. If even remotely accurate, such information helps the manager determine more explicitly risk exposure, expected outcomes, and likelihood distributions. searching for a better approach to technique selection. In part, these attempts have explored the strengths and performance characteristics of various techniques. 2 Our chart extends this approach by helping the forecaster match different techniques’ strengths and characteristics to the needs and constraints of the required forecast. Managers can improve their projection in the following ways: Combining forecasts. Simulating a range of input assumptions. Selectively applying judgment. Combining forecasts The research on combining forecasts to achieve improvements (particularly in accuracy) is extensive, persuasive, and consistent. The results of combined forecasts greatly surpass most individual projections, techniques, and analyses by experts. Because toprated experts and the most popular techniques cannot consistently outperform an approach that combines results, and because the manager cannot predetermine which experts or techniques will be superior in HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 IMPROVING THE FORECAST B ecause no dramatic breakthroughs in technique development have occurred during the past several years, efforts to improve forecasts have shifted to 8 ny situation, combining forecasts—particularly with techniques that are dissimilar—offers the manager an assured way of improving quality. The forecasting chart can help the manager select the best combination of techniques. As the chart shows, each method has strengths and weaknesses. By carefully matching two or more complementary techniques, the forecaster can offset any technique’s limitations with the advantages of another, all the while retaining the strengths of the first. Simply compare an approach’s highlighted cells against those of other qualified methods. Various techniques incorporate very different underlying notions. Not knowing which of these will ultimately prove to be most accurate in a particular economic environment, forecasters can add to their awareness of possible outcomes by evaluating the range and the distribution of the projections produced by the various methods. 4 ments in dynamic situations when the quantitative models do not reflect significant internal and external changes. Even in these cases, the forecaster should incorporate the subjective adjustments as inputs in the model rather than adjusting the model’s final outcome. When confronted with extended horizons or with novel situations that have limited data and no historical precedent, judgment or counting methods should be used. Applying judgment in such situations, however, should be done on a structured basis. The forecaster should also employ judgment to stimulate thought and explore new relationships but, where possible, quantitative techniques should be incorporated to test and support assumptions. The two-part article on scenario forecasts by Pierre Wack in the September-October 1985 and November-December 1985 issues of HBR provides a good example of this. . For additional discussion, see G. David Hughes, â€Å"Sales Forecasting Requirements,† in The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide, ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright (New York: John Wiley Sons, 1982), p. 13. 2. For a discussion of examples, see Spyros Makridakis et al. , â€Å"The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods,† Journal of Forecast ing, April–June 1982, p. 111; and Steven P. Schnaars, â€Å"Situational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy,† Journal of Marketing Research, August 1984, p. 290. 3. See Essam Mahmoud, â€Å"Accuracy in Forecasting: A Survey,† Journal of Forecasting, April–June 1984, p. 139; Spyros Makridakis and Robert L. Winkler, â€Å"Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results,† Management Science, September 1983, p. 987; and Victor Zarnowitz, â€Å"The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys,† Journal of Forecasting, January–March 1984, p. 10. 4. See Hillel J. Einhorn and Robin M. Hogarth, â€Å"Prediction, Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking,† Journal of Forecasting, January–March 1982, p. 23. 5. For survey articles that address this issue, see Mahmoud, p. 39; and Robin M. Hogarth and Spyros Makridakis, â€Å"Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation,† Management Science, February 1981, p. 115. 6. Lennart Sjoberg, â€Å"Aided and Unaided Decision Making: Improved Intuitive Judgment,† Journal of Forecasting, October–December 1982, p. 349. Simulating various outc omes The manager can also establish a range of probable outcomes by varying the combination and the levels of inputs of a particular technique. Such sensitivity analysis can underscore the most critical variables, the range and distribution of expected outcomes, and the probable outcomes from different assumptions. Using judgment While many quantitative forecasts incorporate some subjectivity, forecasters should rely more heavily on the output of a quantitative forecast than on their own judgment. Forecasting research has concluded that even simple quantitative techniques outperform the unstructured intuitive assessments of experts and that using judgment to adjust the values of a quantitatively derived forecast will reduce its accuracy. 5 This is so because intuitive predictions are susceptible to bias and managers are limited in their ability to process information and maintain consistent relationships among ariables. 6 The forecaster should incorporate subjective judg- HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 9 Harvard Business Review HBR Subscriptions Outside U. S. and Canada Tower House Sovereign Park Lathkill Street Market Harborough Leicestershire LE16 9EF Telephone: (800) 274-3214 Telephone: 44-85-846-8888 Fax: (617) 496-8145 Fax: 44-85-843-4958 American Express, MasterCard, Visa accepted. Billing available. 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