Motivations and realities. Journal of studies in international Educati

Question: Responsibilities of nurse educators to meet the standards of regulatory and accrediting bodies . Legal and ethical implications for faculty who teach in the classroom, in clinical settings with students, and in clinical agencies in the role of Clinical Educator. The concept of due process for students and new nurses deemed unsafe in the clinical setting. The process for managing students and new nurses dishonest actions. How faculty can help students develop a professional attitude or demeanor. How faculty can utilize the faculty student relationship as a tool to support understanding of legal and ethical issues. Potential strategies for managing legal and ethical issues successfull. Answer: Introduction The present scenario of healthcare environment has a demand for nurses to meet the various patient needs. Legal and ethical issues may occur in various professional situations where the question of morality based on the wrongness and rightness may arise. Decision-making has to be done keeping in mind the patients beneficent care. Therefore, the legal and ethical decisions as they affect the nurses often take them through exhausting and stressful conditions of work. Nursing programs deal with the ethical and legal issues throughout the curriculum. Therefore, the clinical instructors have the responsibility to introduce the students to the ethical and legal issues. The present study deals with the subject that how the nurse educator would respond to the legal and ethical issues that one may encounter at the workplace. Responsibilities of nurse educators In the United States, there are fifty-two national and six regional agencies. There are also various other regulatory bodies for governing the legal issues of learning like American Nurses Association. The responsibility of the nurse educator lies with the fact that he needs to meet the standards of the regulatory and accreditation bodies during the curriculum of nursing. The students should get well aware of the goals and objectives of these bodies including the legal and ethical factors to get well prepared before entering the profession (ANA, 2010). The responsibilities of the nurse educator have been listed below. Implementing and developing the standards of accreditation for continuous improvement of the students through the education programs. Ensuring that the education programs meet the expectations of the profession for the legal and ethical requirements. Maintaining and developing the code of ethics for nursing. Maintaining and developing the standards and scope of nursing practice by the regulatory bodies (Altbach Knight, 2007). Development support for the nursing research and theory as laid down by the accreditation bodies for explaining the observations and guiding the practice of nursing. Explaining the requirements of education as needed for the professional practice. Defining the competence of professional role a nurse has to overcome, as one faces emergencies. Development of resources and programs for establishing the articulate of nurses accountability to the practice policy, society and governmental advocacy (Aacn.nche.edu, 2016). Legal and Ethical Implications The legal and ethical issues of nursing education are primarily based on the student, the faculty and the educational program. In the case of clinical settings and agencies, the legal and ethical issues of the site have also been brought into consideration. Faculty collects this information and to conform to the requirement of the clinical agencies for the implementation of the legal and ethical issues. The nursing educators pave the path for the future professional nurses from various settings and classrooms. The nurse educator should be able to define legally and describe the laws, both case and statutory, which governs the nursing education. The students and the faculty should share the governance. Academic freedom should be provided in the clinical and class settings. The faculty should build up a strategy to build up gaps between the educational syllabus and the professional settings. This will help to imply the ethical and legal issues effectively (Billings Halstead, 2013). Changes are happening in the nursing practice. Accordingly, there should be changes in the educational system as well. Ethical conducts generally do not undergo huge changes, but the legal issues can be modified. The ethical issues can be addressed by drawing real life situations and case studies whereas the legal issues can be explained by teaching from the various sources, dealing with the nursing law. The faculty should make a critical appraisal and systemic approach for the clinical conditions related to the ethical and legal issues. Setting examples of the faculty's expertise and experience, he can implement the issues among the students from various settings. However, the students of clinical settings and agencies are exposed to various types of data and their relative analysis can help the student to understand better the conditions of implementation (Berner, 2007). The classroom students can be benefitted by the case studies they undertake and implement the issues as per their understandings. These implementations help to develop the nursing skills of the students from various settings. Due Process for Students Due process is intended to assure that the rights of the students are respected as per the situation. Due process is of two types. The substantive due process deals with the determining the relation of the outcome, the degree of fairness in it, with the infraction. It is done to determine the whether the seriousness of the crime suits the punishment. The second type is a procedural due process. This provides the accused with the facility of receiving notice and an opportunity of being heard. It is based on the principle that decisions should be fair, nondiscriminatory and objective (Clark, 2008). The due process is employed when a student breaches or violates the code of the conduct of the nursing students. Any misconduct done is handled individually with the due process. Depending upon the severity of the misconduct, the punishment is delivered. However, the student is also given an opportunity for explanation of his misconduct, as per the rules of the litigation. The case is individually handled for application of the due process (Anselmi, Glasgow Gambescia, 2014). Unsafe Nurses in the Clinical Settings Nurses prone to disorders of substance use may be deemed as unsafe in the clinical settings. Their disorder may have a direct impact on their work and performance. Alternative programs have been designed to recover the nurses from the disorders of substance use or mental disorders. These programs help the nurses to be monitored and the risks of practice get reduced (Killam, Luhanga Bakker, 2011). It is the responsibility of the nurse educator to train up nurses for ultimate patient care. The legal and ethical responsibility involves the recognition of the signs and symptoms of unsafe practice, which might affect the safety of the patients in future (Grube, Piliavin Turner, 2010). Several observational tools can be implemented to monitor the unprofessional practice of the unsafe nurses in the clinical settings and separate them from other nurses (Luhanga et al., 2014). Managing Nursing Students and Dishonest Actions Nursing students and new nurses are expected to have an ethical and professional behavior, as the society has faith on them as competent providers of care. Unethical behavior and dishonesty include cheating and dishonest behaviors. Cheating in the academic career can be potentially disastrous as the nurse fails to gather requisite information regarding the safe care of human beings. This may lead to harm, suffering and even death of the patient (Suplee et al., 2008). Various strategies can be adopted to prevent dishonesty among the students and new nurses. The first strategy is the development of administrative policies. Academic policies may be created as the preventive measures. The legal department should review the contents of the document. These policies must be on display everywhere and at every possible accessible point. Consequences for repeated offenses should also be clearly mentioned. The faculty should well incorporate the behavioral expectations from the students (Killam et al., 2012). The second strategy is faculty development or education. These empower the faculty to address the dishonest behaviors in all setting types. Developing the assertiveness of the faculty in the environments of teaching is important so that he can have a control and strong monitoring of his class. The third strategy is setting up of the ground rules. Many times the dishonest behavior originates from the misinterpretation of the guidelines and grading of the assignments. Therefore, the faculty members should review the ground rules and display them in the syllabus in the clinical settings and classroom (Marshall, 2013). Development of Professional Attitude and Demeanor Nursing is much more than a series of skills and business activities. It is regarded as a part of socialization, which leads to the development and internalization of the identity as a nurse. The nursing profession is much concerned with the development of professional attitude and behavior. The faculty has many contributions to the development of the professional attitude (Mitchell, 2010). The program objectives are so designed that they aim at the development of the students. A few of the attitudes and demeanors have been discussed below. Dependability Nursing professionals are expected to be responsible and professional for carrying out the needs and duties. For this, the faculty must train them to be punctual and responsible towards their curriculum and assignments. Professional presentation The nurses should present themselves in such a way that is accepted by clients, employers and peers. For this, the faculty should develop a program for professional development of personality and train accordingly. Cooperation Teamwork is very essential in nursing. The nurses may require working in multidisciplinary, transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary teams. For this, the faculty should arrange group activities to develop this habit of teamwork. Clinical Reasoning The process of inquiry in the clinical practice of nursing is called clinical reasoning. Experience, knowledge and problem solving abilities are essential to encounter difficult and emergency situations. For this, the faculty should assign the students case studies to develop an estimation of the clinical reasoning in the profession of nursing (Griffiths et al., 2012). Faculty-Student Relationship The student faculty relationship is very important from the view of learning. The educational experience quality strongly depends on this relationship. This relationship helps in understanding the legal and ethical issues and helps in student success. Faculties in various settings face students whose learning needs and backgrounds are diverse. Therefore, it becomes very important to make them understand the legal and ethical issues (Priest et al., 2007). Developing a healthy relationship with them helps them to understand these issues and apply them professionally. The faculty should develop an environment of learning that encourages positive and collaborative faculty-student interactions. These will serve as an effective tool to develop strategies for active participations of students in understanding the legal and ethical issues (Hamric et al., 2013). Open communication with the students and application of learning activities helps in developing a student-faculty relationship. A positive relationship will facilitate better learning of the nursing curriculum (Ganske, 2010). Potential Strategies Professional nurses face many challenges in their practice. This challenge helps them to grow and contribute to the health of the society. However, several legal and ethical issues are faced by the nurses, which they have to manage strategically. Some of the potential strategies have been discussed below. Protecting the interests of the patient and ensuring quality care for nursing to the patients is an essential part of ethical management. The nurses should be provided more competence to face these ethical challenges to manage them. Using personal experience and values, patients rights and discussion with the management can be another potential strategy to manage the ethical issues (Marquis Huston, 2009). The legal issues can be managed by having a deep knowledge and understanding the nursing laws. In the case of a procedure for a patient, informed consent is essential. Potential legal risks can be managed and avoided if the signature is done before the procedure and everything is well documented (Park et al., 2014). Allegations of abuse should be managed by reporting them to the concerned authority. HIPAA laws should be well known by the nurses to manage problems regarding patient privacy. Medication errors and further litigation can be managed by having the correct knowledge of dosing and treatment regime (Furlong, 2008). References Altbach, P. G., Knight, J. (2007). The internationalization of higher education: Motivations and realities.Journal of studies in international education,11(3-4), 290-305. American Association of Colleges of Nursing | Home. (2016).Aacn.nche.edu. Retrieved 5 March 2016, from https://www.aacn.nche.edu American Nurses Association. (2010).Nursing's social policy statement: The essence of the profession. Nursesbooks. org. Anselmi, K. K., Glasgow, M. E. S., Gambescia, S. F. (2014). Using a nursing student conduct committee to foster professionalism among nursing students.Journal of Professional Nursing : Official Journal of the American Association of Colleges of Nursing,30(6), 481-485. doi:10.1016/j.profnurs.2014.04.002 Berner, E. S. (2007).Clinical decision support systems(pp. 3-22). New York: Springer Science+ Business Media, LLC. Billings, D. M., Halstead, J. A. (2013).Teaching in nursing: A guide for faculty. Elsevier Health Sciences. Clark, C. M. (2008). Student voices on faculty incivility in nursing education: A conceptual model.Nursing Education Perspectives,29(5), 284-289. Furlong, E. (2008). Right or wrong: legal and ethical issues and decision making.Decision-making in nursing: thoughtful approaches for practice. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, 29-46. Ganske, K. M. (2010). Moral distress in academia.OJIN: The Online Journal of Issues in Nursing,15(3), 6. Griffiths, J., Speed, S., Horne, M., Keeley, P. (2012). A caring professional attitude: What service users and carers seek in graduate nurses and the challenge for educators.Nurse Education Today,32(2), 121-127. doi:10.1016/j.nedt.2011.06.005 Grube, J. A., Piliavin, J. A., Turner, J. W. (2010). The courage of one's conviction: When do nurse practitioners report unsafe practices?Health Communication,25(2), 155-164. doi:10.1080/10410230903544944 Hamric, A. B., Hanson, C. M., Tracy, M. F., O'Grady, E. T. (2013).Advanced practice nursing: An integrative approach. Elsevier Health Sciences. Killam, L. A., Luhanga, F., Bakker, D. (2011). Characteristics of unsafe undergraduate nursing students in clinical practice: an integrative literature review.Journal of Nursing Education,50(8), 437-446. Killam, L. A., Montgomery, P., Raymond, J. M., Mossey, S., Timmermans, K. E., Binette, J. (2012). Unsafe clinical practices as perceived by final year baccalaureate nursing students: Q methodology.BMC Nursing,11(1), 26-26. doi:10.1186/1472-6955-11-26 Luhanga, F., Koren, I., Yonge, O., Myrick, F. (2014). Strategies for managing unsafe precepted nursing students: A nursing faculty perspective.Journal of Nursing Education and Practice,4(5), 116. Marquis, B. L., Huston, C. J. (2009).Leadership roles and management functions in nursing: Theory and application. Lippincott Williams Wilkins. Marshall, D. J. (2013).Adjunct nursing faculty perceptions of and reactions to unethical or dishonest nursing student behaviors in the classroom and clinical areas. University of Florida. Mitchell, C. (2010). Teaching in Nursing: A Guide for Faculty.Nursing Education Perspectives,31(2), 120-121. Park, M., Jeon, S. H., Hong, H., Cho, S. (2014). A comparison of ethical issues in nursing practice across nursing units.Nursing Ethics,21(5), 594-607. doi:10.1177/0969733013513212 Priest, C., Kooken, W. C., Ealey, K. L., Holmes, S. R., Hufeld, P. (2007). Improving baccalaureate nursing students' understanding of fundamental legal issues through interdisciplinary collaboration.Journal of Nursing Law,11(1), 35. Suplee, P. D., Lachman, V. D., Siebert, B., Anselmi, K. K. (2008). Managing nursing student incivility in the classroom, clinical setting, and on-line.Journal of Nursing Law,12(2), 68-77.

Manager’s Guide to Forecasting free essay sample

Manager’s Guide to Forecasting by David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick Harvard Business Review Reprint 86104 J A N U A RY– F E B R U A RY 1 9 8 6 HBR Manager’s Guide to Forecasting David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick E arly in 1984, the Houston-based COMPAQ Computer Corporation, manufacturer of IBMcompatible microcomputers, faced a decision that would profoundly affect its future. Recognizing that IBM would soon introduce its version of the portable computer and threaten COMPAQ’s dominance in this profitable market, the company had two options. It could elect to specialize in this product line and continue to market its highly regarded portables aggressively, or it could expand market offerings to include desktop microcomputers. The latter move would force the year-old company to confront IBM on its home ground. Moreover, COMPAQ would have to make a substantial investment in product development and working capital and expand its organization and manufacturing capacity. COMPAQ’s management faced several important unknowns, including the potential market’s size, structure, and competitive intensity. Management recognized that the company’s vitality might seriously erode if it did not expand its product line. If the expansion were successful, COMPAQ might enjoy economies of scale that could help ensure its survival in a dynamic and very competitive industry. If COMPAQ’s market assumptions were incorrect, however, its future might be bleak. Many of today’s managers face similar new market realities and uncertainties. Continually confronted with issues critical to their companies’ competitive future, they must deal with novel and rapidly changing environments. In short, they must judge a broad range of dissimilar influences. For more than a decade, new forecasting techniques have theoretically helped managers evaluate these varied factors. Much of the promise of these techniques has been unrealized, however, even as a quickening succession of related advances have been overwhelming decision makers with new alternatives. As the number of techniques proliferates, management also realizes that some of its crucial assumptions and projections about the economy have become quite tenuous. Equipped only with a little history, meager and questionable data, and frail and changing theoretical tools, the forecaster must nevertheless make critical decisions about altered futures. As an example, COMPAQ Computer’s quandary was further complicated because new technologies, competitors, and products were already transforming Mr. Georgoff is professor of marketing at Florida Atlantic University and chairman of the Department of Management, Marketing, and International Business. He has published articles and worked as a consultant to large corporations in the areas of new product marketing, marketing planning, market research, and forecasting. Mr. Murdick is professor of management at Florida Atlantic University. Previously he worked at the General Electric Company for 14 years. Well known in the field of management information systems, he is the author or coauthor of 18 books on management and marketing, the most recent of which is MIS: Concepts and Design (Prentice-Hall, second edition, 1986). Authors’ note: We thank Steven C. Wheelwright for his valuable assistance in the preparation of this article. Copyright  © 1986 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. Manager’s Guide to Forecasting Brief descriptions of methods Counting methods Time series methods Association or causal methods *Dev = Development time Ex = Execution time Indicates strength Time series decomposition: a prediction of expected outcomes from trend, seasonal, cyclical, and random components, which are isolated from a data series. Correlation methods: predictions of values based on historic patterns of covariation between variables. Input-output models: a matrix model that indicates how demand changes in one industry can directly and cumulatively affect other industries. Judgment methods Market testing: representative buyers’ responses to new offerings, tested and extrapolated to estimate the products’ future prospects. Moving averages: recent values of the forecast variables averaged to preduct future outcomes. Naive extrapolation: the application of a simple assumption about the economic outcome of the next time period, or a simple, if subjective, extension of the results of current events. Consumer market survey: attitudinal and purchase intentions data gathered from representative buyers. Industrial market survey: data similar to consumer surveys but fewer, more knowledgeable subjects sampled, resulting in more informed evaluations. Adaptive filtering: a derivation of a weighted combination of actual and estimated outcomes, systematically altered to reflect data pattern changes. Box-Jenkins: a complex, computer-based iterative procedure that produces an autoregressive, integrated moving average model, adjusts for seasonal and trend factors, estimates appropriate weighting parameters, tests the model, and repeats the cycle as appropriate. Exponential smoothing: an estimate for the coming period based on a constantly weighted combination of the forecast estimate for the previous period and the most recent outcome. Regression models: estimates produced from a predictive equation derived by minimizing the residual variance of one or more predictor (independent) variable. Leading indicators: forecasts generated from one or more preceding variable that is systematically related to the variable to be predicted. Delphi technique: a successive series of estimates independently developed by a group of â€Å"experts† each member of which, at each step in the process, uses a summary of the group’s previous results to formulate new estimates. Indicates weakness Sales-force composite: a compilation of estimates by salespeople (or dealers) of expected sales in their territories, adjusted for presumed biases and expected changes. Historical analogy: predictions based on elements of past events that are analogous to the present situation. Jury of executive opinion: the consensus of a group of â€Å"experts,† often from a variety of functional areas within a company. Time series extrapolation: a prediction of outcomes derived from the future extension of a least squares function fitted to a data series that uses time as an independent variable. Scenario methods: smoothly unfolding narratives that describe an assumed future expressed through a sequence of time frames or snapshots. Econometric models: outcomes forecast from an integrated system of simultaneous equations that represent relationships among elements of the national economy derived from combining history and economic theory. Dimensions Questions Judgment methods Naive extrapolation Sales-force composite Short or Medium Jury of executive opinion Short or Medium Qualitative Scenario methods Delphi technique Medium or Long Medium or Long Historical analogy Medium or Long Counting methods Market testing Market survey Consumer market survey Medium Medium Industrial market survey Medium or Long Time Span Is the forecast period a: Present need, or Short-, Medium-, or Long-term projection? Is the forecast needed immediately? Present need to Medium Urgency Rapid results are a strong advantage of this technique. * Dev Short Ex Short Forecast can be assembled, combined, and adjusted relatively quickly. Dev Short Ex Moderate In-house group forecasts are quicker than outside experts’. Dev Short Ex Short to Moderate Urgency seriously compromises quality. Dev Moderate to Long Ex Moderate Urgency seriously compromises quality. Dev Moderate Ex Moderate to Long Forecast can be computed quickly if data are available; data gathering may cause delay. Dev Moderate Ex Moderate Substantial lag is involved. Dev Moderate Ex Long to Extended Method of gathering data may cause a substantial time lag. Dev Moderate Ex Long to Extended Frequency Are frequent forecast updates needed? Can easily accommodate frequent updates. Forecast can be Can accomplish quickly compiled, quickly. but data collection restricts rapidity. Frequency need is moderate; updates are generally provided as need arises. Usually used for one-time forecasts, but they can be revised as new information becomes available. Depending on Extended, basically used for methodology, one-time forecasts. requent updates are possible, but updates are generally provided at extended intervals. Sophistication Technical level is variable, competencies are but some generally needed. quantitative skill is desirable. Resource Mathematical require- sophistication ments Are quantitative skills limited? Minimal quantitative capabilities are required. Computer capabilities are not essential. Very inexpensive to implement and maintain. Nominal processing does not require a computer. Inexpensive to implement and maintain. Financial requirements are nominal for executive groups; they may be higher for outside experts. Usually expensive Expense depends for thorough on makeup and efforts. affiliation of participants. Computer Are computer capabilities limited? Are only limited financial resources available? A computer may be helpful. A computer is generally needed for data analysis. Generally expensive for good controls. Moderately expensive, depending on controls. Financial If data are readily Generally very available, expensive. out-of-pocket costs are minimal. Input Antecedent Are only limited past data available? Does the primary series fluctuate substantially? Some past data are required, but extended history is not essential. Has difficulty adequately handling wide fluctuations. Past data are helpful but not always essential. Does not handle fluctuations well but can accommodate them if the panel meets frequently. Significant changes are frequently not transmitted and/or realistically reflected. Generally has difficulty realistically reflecting changes. If changes come from an internal corporate group, technique can readily reflect them. Technique’s extended view dampens impact of short-run influences and random variability. Extended history is essential. Past data are useful but not essential. Substantial fluctuations limit the accuracy of projections. Handles fluctuations poorly, but tracking improves performance. Generally cannot validly reflect changes. Past data very helpful but not essential. Wide fluctuations are frequently a significant concern. Variability Internal consistency Are significant changes in management decisions expected? Can reflect changes. Can readily reflect Can Can crudely internal changes. accommodate reflect changes at changes, but ease best. of reflecting them depends on group’s background. Can handle changes, but forecast quality can vary substantially. Can accommodate shifts crudely. Can reflect changes well if they are incorporated into original research design. If changes are recognized, adjustments can be made. External consistency Are significant environmental changes expected? Are significant shifts expected among variable relationships? Can reflect changes, but quality can also vary substantially. Often insensitive to shifts. Reflects changes Reflects changes well; technique well. combines a range of expertise. Usually aware of shifts and can reflect them in the forecast. Adapts well to shifts. Seriously weak in Ease of handling handling changes. changes depends on consumers’ awareness and interpretation. Seriously weak in accommodating shifts. Handles detail but scope can be limited. Seldom reflects significant shifts. Reflects changes indirectly; it is frequently very sensitive to them. If carefully controlled, can handle shifts well. External stability Output Detail Are component Focus can be forecasts required? readily restricted. Can often provide Can reflect useful component breakdowns. forecasts, but is generally concerned with aggregate forecasts. Can be very accurate or subject to substantial bias. May be most accurate under dynamic conditions. Generally confined to aggregate forecasts. Accuracy Is a high level of accuracy critical? Often provides a limited practical level of accuracy. Not particularly accurate, but usually most accurate when horizons are extended and conditions are dynamic. Can readily adjust if recognized, but long time horizon often precludes the need. Inferential relationships are often tenuous; predictions are suspect. Provides highest accuracy in new product and limited data conditions. Has limited Can be most predictability with accurate approach durables, in special cases. somewhat better with nondurables. Capability for Should turning Can be very reflecting points be reflected responsive to direction changes promptly? hifts. Responsive, but this is not one of its purposes. Often highly responsive to demand shifts. Should turning Capability for detecting points be direction changes identified early? Apt to miss turning points. Early turning point identification can be a strength under dynamic conditions. Can detect cyclical turning points early under dynamic conditions, but long time hor izon often precludes the need. Technique is subjective, but distributions are an inherent part of technique. Can only predict Early turning point noncyclical points identification is very crudely. not a purpose or capability of this technique. Can be responsive to turning points but usually cannot anticipate them. Can be very sensitive to turning points. Form Is an interval or probabilistic forecast critical? Provides point forecast with crude estimated range. Can only provide crude, subjectively determined probabilistic forecast. Only subjectively determined approximate range or frequency distribution is possible. Can provide In limited situations, only an interval estimates. approximate range can be furnished. With probability sampling, accommodates any desired form. A B C D E F G H I 4 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 Time series methods Moving averages Exponential smoothing Adaptive filtering Short or Medium Time series extrapolation Time series decomposition Box-Jenkins Association or Causal methods Correlation methods Regression models Leading indicators Econometric models Input-output models Short, Medium, or Present need to Long Short or Medium Short, Medium, or Short or Medium Long Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Short, Medium, or Medium or Long Long Long Long Long Long 1 Rapid results are a strong advantage of this technique. Dev Short Ex Short Forecast can be produced quickly once programmed and past data are available. Dev Moderate Ex Short Computation is quick if data are available; data gathering can cause delays. Dev Short to Moderate Ex Short Program setup and data gathering may cause delays, but once programmed, computation is quick. Dev Moderate Ex Short Operationalizing program can take time, but forecast can be produced quickly. Dev Long Ex Moderate Data evaluation may cause delays, but forecast computation is quick. Dev Moderate Ex Short to Moderate Model formulation takes time, but forecast computation is quick. Dev Moderate to Long Ex Short to Moderate Data evaluation may cause delays, but forecast computation is quick. Dev Moderate Ex Short to Moderate Model building is lengthy, but producing forecast is quick. Dev Long to Extended Ex Short to Moderate Forecast can be updated quickly if data are available. Original model may require up to a year to develop. Dev Extended Ex Short to Moderate 2 Forecast can be systematically updated easily. 3 Minimal quantitative capabilities are required. A computer is helpful for repetitive updating. If data are readily available, out-of-pocket costs are minimal. A fundamental competency level is required. A high level of understanding is required. A fundamental competency level is required. A high level of understanding is required. 4 A computer is essential. A computer is helpful for repetitive updating. If data are readily available, out-of-pocket costs are minimal. Moderately expensive to acquire, develop, and modify. A computer is essential. A computer is desirable. A computer is essential for most cases. A computer is essential for all cases. Development costs are substantial; operating costs are moderate. 5 Forecast is moderately expensive to develop. Acquisition and If data are on modification costs hand, are expensive. development costs are moderate. 6 Past history is essential. Only recent forecasts and current data are required once alpha is determined. Can accommodate fluctuations with suitable alpha. Past history is essential although detail and extent vary. Past history is essential with some detail required. Past history is essential with detail required. Extended history is helpful in initial development. Extended detailed history is required. 7 Can accommodate fluctuations with appropriate averaging period. Cannot validly reflect changes. Absorbs random fluctuations and adjusts to systematic shifts. Wide fluctuations result in decreased confidence in projected outcomes. Can isolate and Handles determine the variability level of effectively. component effects. Technique is good if covariation is high; otherwise it is poor. May handle large Can readily adjust to systematic and fluctuations well with appropriate random patterns. independent variables. Insensitive to changes, but they can be reflected among predictor variables. Insensitive to changes unless they are reflected in the indicators. Time lag further reduces accuracy. 8 Insensitive to significant changes unless they are correlated with predictor variables. Can only moderately reflect changes with prior trend. Cannot validly reflect changes. Can only moderately reflect changes with prior trend. Insensitive unless they are related to predictor variables. Insensitive to changes. 9 Cannot validly reflect changes. Handles changes well if they are appropriately reflected in predictor variables. Sensitive to changes if they are reflected in appropriate indicators. Highly sensitive to Can be modified relevant changes. to reflect changes. 10 Cannot validly reflect shifts. Can only moderately reflect shifts with prior trend. Cannot validly reflect shifts. Can only moderately reflect shifts with prior trend. Predictive accuracy is weakened if shifts occur. A restricted focus might substantially compromise technique’s productive accuracy. Focus can be readily restricted, depending on indicators used. Generally confined to aggregate forecasts. Cannot validly reflect shifts without updated coefficients. Effectively reflects demand by SIC groups. 11 Focus can be readily restricted. 12 Accurate under stable conditions. Generally rates high in accuracy for short-term forecasts. Normally accurate for trends and stationary series. Effectively isolates Frequently the identifiable most accurate for components. short-to-mediumrange forecasts. Predictive accuracy can vary widely. Can be accurate if variable relationships are stable and the proportion of explained variance is high. Sensitive to changes once they are identified. Only moderately accurate under most conditions. Give spotty performances in dynamic environments. With stable relationships, predictive accuracy can be very good. 13 Variable lags always exist. Depending on alpha value, can be very responsive. Deals very well Very unresponsive. Generally with systematic responds slowly. shifts in variables. When points are identified, adjusts quickly. Can adapt quickly to turning points. 14 Especially effective in forecasting cyclical changes. Probability range is easily constructed. Confidence limits are provided. Cannot anticipate turning points but can effectively predict outcomes. Confidence limits can be developed. Cannot anticipate turning points. Generally cannot predict turning points unless series lags. Generally only provides point forecast. Probability range is easily constructed. A weak predictive Can predict ability is possible. turning points only if a lagged relationship exists. If relationships are stable, can effectively predict turning points. Confidence limits are provided. 15 Confidence limits can be easily derived based on variability of data series. 6 J K L M N O P Q R S T HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 5 a market that had been only recently established. COMPAQ’s forecast of the size, direction, and price trends of the 1984 microcomputer market was confounded by uncertainties about the market’s response to several vital factors:. The entry of IBM’s new portab le computer. IBM’s 23% price cut in June 1984 and its potential erosion of margins. The entry of lap portables introduced by Hewlett-Packard and Data General. The launch of IBM’s new PC AT, complicated by unexpected delivery delays and compatibility problems. The introduction of desktop computers by Sperry, NCR, ITT, and ATT. Eventually, COMPAQ entered the desktop segment of the market, even though 1984 was unforgiving and rampageous. Several large competitors restricted their programs; many smaller companies went into—or to the edge of—receivership. Financially and competitively, COMPAQ succeeded. During 1984, sales rose from $111 million to $329 million and earnings increased from $4. 7 million to $12. 8 million. The market’s dynamics, however, make such results increasingly difficult to achieve; positive and negative events—both expected and unforeseen—have a decisive effect. Even when managers anticipate outcomes, grave uncertainties about timing, form, and impact persist. Despite the difficulty, the vice president of marketing and the CEO—the two executives most directly involved with the decision—demonstrated what can be done. They used an extended series of consumer and dealer surveys coupled with periodic evaluations of the technology to assess the future market and to guide the development of products and programs to accommodate the industry’s fluid and rapidly evolving needs. Managers can use forecasting techniques to help them reach important decisions. A large and fast-growing body of research deals with the development, refinement, and evaluation of forecast techniques. Managers also have greater access to both internal and external data and can benefit from a multitude of computer software programs on the market, as well as easier access to computer capabilities for analyzing these data. FORECASTER’S CHART While each technique has strengths and weaknesses, every forecasting situation is limited by constraints like time, funds, competencies, or data. Balancing the advantages and disadvantages of techniques with re6 ard to a situation’s limitations and requirements is a formidable but important management task. We have developed a chart to help executives decide which technique will be appropriate to a particular situation; the chart groups and profiles a diverse list of 20 common forecasting approaches and arrays them against 16 important evaluative dimensions. We list techniques in columns and dimensions of evaluati on in rows. Individual row-column intersections (cells) reflect our view of a technique’s characteristics as they apply to each dimension. Brief descriptions of the forecasting methods are given on the chart. We have used different shades of gray to show which dimensions represent a strength for a particular technique and which represent its weaknesses. The strengths are highlighted in light gray; weaknesses are indicated by a dark gray cell. Naive extrapolation, for example, is strong in internal consistency in that it easily reflects changes in management decisions. It is weak, however, in forecast form. It is important to keep these distinctions in mind when you are using the chart. The chart is useful in two ways. The first is in deciding which technique will suit your particular needs as a forecaster. The second is in deciding how to combine techniques to further improve the result. In this section, we discuss the simpler approach; we talk more about combining methods later. To use the chart, look at the 16 questions listed in the first column after the dimensions. They are the most common questions a manager will ask when deciding to use a certain forecast. The first question sets out the various time spans a forecast would have to cover. Everyone who uses the chart will have to answer question 1. But each of the following questions can be answered with a yes or no. If you answer no to a question, you don’t have to look across that row. In responding to question 1, make note of those techniques whose time span matches your needs. We have found it easiest for forecasters to write down the technique’s column letter. The row number of each dimension and the column letter of each technique are written along the horizontal and vertical axes. With regard to question 1, for example, if your forecast horizon is short-term, you can write down the cell letters for naive extrapolation (A), sales-force composite (B), jury of executive opinion (C), and so forth. But you would ignore the letters for scenario methods (D), Delphi technique (E), historical analogy (F), and so on. The columns you have now listed represent techniques that are qualified for further consideration. Next read down the column of each of these techniques and note any gray cells. If these gray cells are HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 ssociated with questions to which you have answered yes, then the dimension either precludes use of the technique or the technique can be used but it has difficulty accommodating that dimension. Such precautions will help you determine whether you must—or wish to—eliminate certain techniques from further consideration. An arrow in a cell indicates that its evaluation is the same as the cell to its left. After you have answered all the questions and have a list of surviving techniques, note the cells that are highlighted in light gray. Those cells represent specific strengths of a technique and can guide you in making a final selection. In the course of the exercise, you may have eliminated a technique that you like, have heard about, or routinely use. You can go back to that one and compare its strengths and weaknesses with those of the methods that the chart has indicated would be best for you. You can then decide whether you would rather proceed with the technique that the chart indicates corresponds most closely to your specific requirements or whether you can accommodate the eliminating factors in order to use the technique that you initially favored. Important Considerations When considering each question, you should remember some â€Å"tricks of the trade† concerning: Time horizon. Most managers will want the forecast results to extend as far into the future as possible. Too long a period, however, may make the technique selection process even more confusing because of the varying abilities of the techniques to accommodate different time spans. In choosing an extended time horizon, the forecaster increases the complexity, cost, and time required to develop the final product. You can break down the time needed to produce a forecast into development (Dev) and execution (Ex) time. Development time includes the gathering and entry of data, the modification of programs to the company’s specific requirements, and the start-up of the system. Execution time is the time it takes to produce a forecast with a particular technique. Initially, of course, development time is a significant concern for the forecaster; once the forecast technique is firmly established, however, execution time is a more appropriate concern. Technical sophistication. Experience shows that computer and mathematical sophistication is integral to many techniques. Although many executives have improved their skills in this area, not all have sharpened their quantitative skills enough to be comfortable with some of the forecast results a computer will spill out. Cost. The cost of any technique is generally more HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 important at the beginning when it is being developed and installed; after that, any technique’s potential value to a decision maker usually exceeds the expense of generating an updated forecast. Data availability. Before choosing a technique, the forecaster must consider the extensiveness, currency, accuracy, and representativeness of the available data. More data tend to improve accuracy, and detailed data are more valuable than those presented in the aggregate. Because a technique’s ability to handle fluctuations is important to a forecast’s success, the manager must match the sensitivity and stability of a technique to the random and systematic variability components of a data series. Variability and consistency of data. Beyond changes that might occur in the company’s structure or its environment, the manager must look at the kind of stable relationships assumed among a model’s independent variables (represented by the â€Å"external stability† dimension). For example, while most historically oriented quantitative forecasts might use expected levels of automobile production as a basis for determining demand for steel, the forecast model may not reflect changes over time in the average amount of steel used in automobiles. These relationships sometimes do change, but any variation is usually so gradual that it will not affect a short-term forecast. When the forecasts are long-term, however, or when the company expects a substantial change in a vital relationship, the forecaster should either apply judgment in a quantitative technique or use a qualitative method. Amount of detail necessary. While aggregate forecasts are easy to prepare, the manager will need specific information (including individual product classes, time periods, geographic areas, or productmarket groupings, for example) to determine quotas or allocate resources. Since forecasts vary widely in their ability to handle such detail, the manager may want a technique that can accurately predict individual components and then combine the results into an overall picture. Otherwise, the forecaster can use one technique to provide an overall picture and then use past patterns or market factors to determine the component forecasts. 1 Accuracy. While accuracy is a forecaster’s holy grail, the maximum accuracy one can expect from a technique must fall within a range bounded by the average percentage error of the random component of a data series. Also, because of self-defeating and selffulfilling prophecies, accuracy must be judged in light of the control the company has over the predicted outcome and within the time and resource constraints imposed on the forecaster. Remember also that accuracy alone is not the most important criterion. The forecaster may wish to forgo 7 Forecasting Strategies [There are] three basic strategies of forecasting. . . . The deterministic strategy assumes that the present has a close causal relation to the future. This is the strategy that would be used by a cardsharp, who had stacked the deck of cards, to predict the deal. In economic forecasting, the strategy would be used to predict construction expenditures by a knowledge of construction contract awards already made. The symptomatic strategy assumes that present signs show how the future is developing; such signs do not â€Å"determine† the future but reveal the process of change that is already taking place. Thus, a falling barometer may reveal a coming storm, or a rising body thermometer an incipient illness. In economic forecasting, this strategy calls for the spotting of â€Å"leading indicators†Ã¢â‚¬â€time series whose movements foreshadow rises or declines in general business activity. The systematic strategy assumes that, though changes in the real world may seem accidental or chaotic, careful analysis can reveal certain underlying regularities (sometimes called principles, theories, or laws). The way to find these regularities is to black out much of reality and hold only to the abstractions that make up a system, such as a solar system, or a nuclear system, or an economic system. Though the theories that result from this process of abstraction are â€Å"unreal,† they may nevertheless possess the power to affect the real world—provided, of course, that the theories are sound. The test of the soundness of a theory is how it measures up when applied to reality: An atomic explosion confirms Einstein’s E = mc2. Similarly, a price cut that leds to increased sales confirms the hypothetical demand curve that no man has ever seen outside an economics textbook. To be sure, economic â€Å"laws† do not have the consistency of those in the physical sciences. Nevertheless, economic relations or theories, derived from a study of the past, may be useful tools for prediction, within some acceptable range of probable error. From Business Forecasting: With a Guide to Sources of Business Data by Leonard S. Silk and M. Louise Curley (New York: Random House, 1970), p. 3. Copyright  © 1970 by Random House, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of the publisher. some accuracy in favor of, for example, a technique that signals turning points or provides good supplemental information. Turning points. Because turning points represent periods of exceptional opportunity or caution, the manager will want to analyze whether a technique anticipates fundamental shifts. Some techniques give false turn signals, so the forecaster must keep in mind not only a technique’s ability to anticipate changes but also its propensity to give erroneous information. Form. Final form varies greatly; it is always advisable to use a technique that provides some kind of mean or central value and a range of possible outcomes. If even remotely accurate, such information helps the manager determine more explicitly risk exposure, expected outcomes, and likelihood distributions. searching for a better approach to technique selection. In part, these attempts have explored the strengths and performance characteristics of various techniques. 2 Our chart extends this approach by helping the forecaster match different techniques’ strengths and characteristics to the needs and constraints of the required forecast. Managers can improve their projection in the following ways: Combining forecasts. Simulating a range of input assumptions. Selectively applying judgment. Combining forecasts The research on combining forecasts to achieve improvements (particularly in accuracy) is extensive, persuasive, and consistent. The results of combined forecasts greatly surpass most individual projections, techniques, and analyses by experts. Because toprated experts and the most popular techniques cannot consistently outperform an approach that combines results, and because the manager cannot predetermine which experts or techniques will be superior in HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 IMPROVING THE FORECAST B ecause no dramatic breakthroughs in technique development have occurred during the past several years, efforts to improve forecasts have shifted to 8 ny situation, combining forecasts—particularly with techniques that are dissimilar—offers the manager an assured way of improving quality. The forecasting chart can help the manager select the best combination of techniques. As the chart shows, each method has strengths and weaknesses. By carefully matching two or more complementary techniques, the forecaster can offset any technique’s limitations with the advantages of another, all the while retaining the strengths of the first. Simply compare an approach’s highlighted cells against those of other qualified methods. Various techniques incorporate very different underlying notions. Not knowing which of these will ultimately prove to be most accurate in a particular economic environment, forecasters can add to their awareness of possible outcomes by evaluating the range and the distribution of the projections produced by the various methods. 4 ments in dynamic situations when the quantitative models do not reflect significant internal and external changes. Even in these cases, the forecaster should incorporate the subjective adjustments as inputs in the model rather than adjusting the model’s final outcome. When confronted with extended horizons or with novel situations that have limited data and no historical precedent, judgment or counting methods should be used. Applying judgment in such situations, however, should be done on a structured basis. The forecaster should also employ judgment to stimulate thought and explore new relationships but, where possible, quantitative techniques should be incorporated to test and support assumptions. The two-part article on scenario forecasts by Pierre Wack in the September-October 1985 and November-December 1985 issues of HBR provides a good example of this. . For additional discussion, see G. David Hughes, â€Å"Sales Forecasting Requirements,† in The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide, ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright (New York: John Wiley Sons, 1982), p. 13. 2. For a discussion of examples, see Spyros Makridakis et al. , â€Å"The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods,† Journal of Forecast ing, April–June 1982, p. 111; and Steven P. Schnaars, â€Å"Situational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy,† Journal of Marketing Research, August 1984, p. 290. 3. See Essam Mahmoud, â€Å"Accuracy in Forecasting: A Survey,† Journal of Forecasting, April–June 1984, p. 139; Spyros Makridakis and Robert L. Winkler, â€Å"Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results,† Management Science, September 1983, p. 987; and Victor Zarnowitz, â€Å"The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys,† Journal of Forecasting, January–March 1984, p. 10. 4. See Hillel J. Einhorn and Robin M. Hogarth, â€Å"Prediction, Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking,† Journal of Forecasting, January–March 1982, p. 23. 5. For survey articles that address this issue, see Mahmoud, p. 39; and Robin M. Hogarth and Spyros Makridakis, â€Å"Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation,† Management Science, February 1981, p. 115. 6. Lennart Sjoberg, â€Å"Aided and Unaided Decision Making: Improved Intuitive Judgment,† Journal of Forecasting, October–December 1982, p. 349. Simulating various outc omes The manager can also establish a range of probable outcomes by varying the combination and the levels of inputs of a particular technique. Such sensitivity analysis can underscore the most critical variables, the range and distribution of expected outcomes, and the probable outcomes from different assumptions. Using judgment While many quantitative forecasts incorporate some subjectivity, forecasters should rely more heavily on the output of a quantitative forecast than on their own judgment. Forecasting research has concluded that even simple quantitative techniques outperform the unstructured intuitive assessments of experts and that using judgment to adjust the values of a quantitatively derived forecast will reduce its accuracy. 5 This is so because intuitive predictions are susceptible to bias and managers are limited in their ability to process information and maintain consistent relationships among ariables. 6 The forecaster should incorporate subjective judg- HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW January–February 1986 9 Harvard Business Review HBR Subscriptions Outside U. S. and Canada Tower House Sovereign Park Lathkill Street Market Harborough Leicestershire LE16 9EF Telephone: (800) 274-3214 Telephone: 44-85-846-8888 Fax: (617) 496-8145 Fax: 44-85-843-4958 American Express, MasterCard, Visa accepted. Billing available. 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Reviewing the Eliana Dockterman SAT Essay Sample

Reviewing the Eliana Dockterman SAT Essay SampleThe Eliana Dockterman SAT Essay Sample is a fantastic resource for people who have taken the SAT and want to brush up on their skills. Whether you are a recent high school graduate or a veteran of the SAT prep courses that so many years ago helped propel you through those higher levels, the sample essays available are ideal for training your mind.There are many benefits to taking a look at this resource, including a short study guide on the concept of strategy in the SAT essay section. A strategic approach to essay writing will stand out from a traditional, unfriendly style of writing, which will help you excel in the subject matter of the essay. Since this strategy covers not only the strategic aspects of essay writing, but also the aesthetics of writing as well, this is a great resource for anyone who is concerned about their essay writing ability.The essay samples also offer you a way to get a feel for the style of writing found in t he SAT. You will find that the format is similar to that found in the writing sections of all sections of the SAT, with subjects and ideas that have been chosen by the essay writers. This allows you to understand exactly what it takes to write a good essay and the style is rather impressive, as it has no lower case or additional spacing throughout the essay.The written descriptions of the qualities of each essay topic are excellent, because they are offered in a way that is easily understood. Since the essay writers have done their research, they know exactly what is important to describe in these passages. This will save you from having to try to figure it out on your own, because the writers clearly understand what is important.The essay examples contain questions that enable you to determine your strengths and weaknesses. It may be difficult to see the questions, since they are not clearly labeled, but you can see if you need to learn more about the topic or want to polish your p articular skill set. These questions allow you to determine if you are prepared to take the SAT.If you are wondering about how the writing was produced for the essay examples, there is also a list of sample essays for you to review. You will find a list of the writers and the essays that they produce. The writer names are included in the resource box of each essay, so you can read about the person behind the essay as well as what they have written.The essay examples provide you with the opportunity to really polish your skills and use the techniques that you have learned from the material provided by the SAT. If you really want to excel at the SAT, you should take the time to familiarize yourself with the resources available, including the Eliana Dockterman SAT Essay Sample.These are the perfect resources for anyone who is trying to prepare for the SAT. They offer you a way to brush up on your skills and gain experience, so you will be ready to take the SAT when it comes around agai n.

Is the Rise of China a Threat or an Opportunity for Europe

Introduction The rise of China has become one of the most important phenomena taking place in the world. Policy makers and international relations scholars have come up with numerous debates due to the rise of China. The history of the Chinese government stretches over years, but it is not short of powerful dynasties.Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on Is the Rise of China a Threat or an Opportunity for Europe? specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More Most countries perceived the Chinese government as a great power in the 1940s. This perception was because of the efforts that were coming from United States, which was meant to enhance the status of China as a great power. This was done in order for China to counterbalance other countries, which had great power like the Japanese government (Blankert, p. 50). This paper focuses on the aspect of the rise of China and whether it is a threat to European countries. Perceptions con cerning China’s rise China’s rise has raised concerns among many policy makers. This is because of the various threats that have emerged from this aspect. Such threats have been identified as China’s economic threat, military threat, energy threat, and civilization threat among others. The perception of China being a threat has existed for some time now. For example, in 1949, the United States perceived china as a great enemy. The fact that China’s economy is opening up to the outside world can be regarded as a threat or an opportunity. China should not be underestimated at any point because it has large reserves for foreign exchange and surpluses in trade. Its increased capability to manufacture various products enabled the country to be ranked among the leading countries in the world economy (Xing, p.59). As pointed out by Lardy, China’s current market not only presents great opportunities for most of the businesses in Europe, but also the United States (para. 7). This is because the large business opportunities in China outweigh the loss of most jobs from Europe and the US.Advertising Looking for essay on international relations? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More This has made Europe have a lot fear because this means that they will experience job drain to China. The rapidly expanding economic growth and large involvement in global trade have made China rise economically. This has also been contributed to by direct investments inflows from foreign countries. The European economy has come up with policies that try to react to China’s rise due to the fear they hold against China. Europe’s fear stems from the realization that Europe is in the midst of banking and sovereign debt crisis. The assertions in Europe by some policymakers over the European relations China have raised some questions. This is because of the approach used by the European countries to e mphasize on conditionality and encouragement of quality governance. Again, it is because of the approach of the Chinese to put emphasis on investment in infrastructure. The Chinese analysts noted that the real source of economic threat was the Europeans. This is because the Europeans were still in fear of the developments realized by the Chinese government both economically and in military dimension. Cooney and Yoichir believed that China was too weak to threaten the western power (p. 16). However, according to other policy makers, China is associated with numerous threats. China is said to be a threat to America and Japan, which serves as an affirmation to China’s national identity. In this case, the Chinese views the rise of China as a result of a pursuit of China’s rejuvenation. This rejuvenation is the psychological power which was embodied in the concept of China’s rise. This is reflected in the strong belief of the Chinese that the rise of China is meant t o restore the lost status rather than gaining any new prospects. Therefore, the rise of China as viewed by Chinese is meant to restore fairness instead of taking advantage of other countries. This explains why the Chinese people are yearning for increased advancement of their economy, which is too weak for China to go back to its position (Cooney and Yoichir, p. 58).Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on Is the Rise of China a Threat or an Opportunity for Europe? specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More China’s Economic Prospects China’s gross domestic product had grown higher than in the past years when the country’s economic reform program was officially launched. China has had the fastest long term rate of growth as compared to countries worldwide. Therefore, this has elicited a lot of fear in the neighboring countries like Japan, the US, and Europe. This has made the country expand and maintain its gr owth even in times of global recession. For example, in the year 2002, the expansion of Chinese economy was ten times higher than that of Japan. This made China be ranked third in the world economy. Again, the external trade in China has also expanded more than its economy has expanded. This has been reflected in the country’s openness. For example, in the year 1977, China contributed to 0.6 percent of the overall world trade, which ranked it the seven largest in the global economy. China’s trade performance had been very strong for quite some time since 1980s until 2001 when it shrank and began again to recover in 2002. Another factor that contributes to China’s rise is the inflows of foreign direct investment. This signaled China’s intention to open its economic sector after emerging the best in a joint venture law that triggered the creation of special economic zones. China’s economy continues to create a surprise to the neighboring countries. T his is because even when the global inflows continue to decline to low levels, the inflows to China continue to increase at a high rate. This has made China’s economy pose a threat to its neighbors. Although this can be a great threat to its neighbors, it is fair to say that its improved economic performance is not a clear guarantee of its success (Lardy, para. 8). Europeans view on China’s rise The rise of China leaves most of the countries with a great opportunity that is not limited to its economic coverage area. Some countries like the United States have resorted to frequent use of military solutions because of the slow process of diplomacy. China’s rise is aimed at power restoration and hence stability of the whole region.Advertising Looking for essay on international relations? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Some manufacturers and labor unions blame the factory jobs lost in European countries to the rapidly rising bilateral trade deficit that the European countries have with the Chinese government. The European governments continue to wonder what negative consequences that the rise of China will have on them. This means that the Europeans have the fear that China’s economic development will threaten their security. This has made the European countries consider China as a strategic threat. Some of the economists resolve that Europe should make an agreement on the sale of products within their territories. They should limit sale of any product that is of low standard. They should also increase job opportunities in their home country and stop Chinese from exploiting cheap currency (Cooney and Yoichir, p. 19). With its present rate of rising gross domestic product, china would soon go beyond Europe as it has happened with Japan. This is because the Chinese government acquires resourc es from various regions in the globe so as to increase the investments on infrastructure. It is also working on its currency as it targets the European currency, which is its strength. Some other scholars have resolved that they do not see China as a great threat to the European economy. This is because Europe can also form its own foreign policies and a good relationship with China. This can work out well and be beneficial if its structures are well galvanized. On the other hand, Europeans have reason to say that China is a threat to global stability more than the United States and other countries like Iran. This threat is not only viewed from the economic point of view, but from the military perspective. The Chinese government has been developing high-tech weaponry that threatens the Europeans. Their main objective in this is to project power at a given time (Lardy, para. 13). Again, China’s adequate labor and the absence of restraints in the environmental and the social se ctor mean that the country can threaten the whole world. These unfair acts are diminishing most of jobs in the entire world. Also, its demand, which has remained unsatisfied, has raised oil and mineral prices in the world. Another threat is the fact that China makes use of its economic power to hook up other countries. Its high investments have secured unhealthy acts across most countries in Africa. This has given it the power to make use of other countries’ economic resources and cause exploitation to their efforts. This has further been a great threat to Europe because China has engaged in colonization of some European countries. This has been witnessed where China has taken control of companies from the Portuguese. They have also taken the Greek ports and other opportunities because of the high economic power. In addition, China has hindered the spread of democratic values by the Europeans. On the same note, China’s economic progress undermines the European aspirati ons. This has seen China become an inspiration to other countries (Shi, p. 213). The rise of China has presented threats and opportunities not only for Europe, but also to the general global economy. The fact that it has an expanding trade has made it an engine of growth. This is because of the large amounts of capital goods that are imported and equipment used in the industry’s processing units. China has also become an important market for most of the Europeans firms giving European a great challenge. Again, it has been found to be a challenge to most of the countries producing manufactured goods that require a lot of labor. Such countries have started to invest directly in China resulting to unemployment in the home countries. On the other hand, China is determined to be among the leading global economic powers, and this will make restore its international pride. This is likely to be a threat than an opportunity to the Europeans. Despite many uncertainties brought about by the neighboring countries, the Chinese still believe that they will realize their great power dream. If the rise of China is taken as the country’s restoration, then China will reject the threat theory by Europeans and refer to it as western prejudice. It still appears that the Chinese are still confident of casting themselves as having responsible, great power (Hauser, p. 66). This is what helps China to be in a position of addressing other continents’ concerns as pertains to its rise. Again, from the European perspective, it is clear that the European countries will only accept the China’s economic growth and its rise so as to avoid seeing it as a threat to their economies. This will change the European perception towards China’s rise in an effort to reap some benefits from this move. This is only possible if the two players are ready to form strong economic ties (Schmitt, p.104). Conclusion The Europeans should see China’s rise as playing a ver y significant role in the world by recovering the economy. Therefore, they should allow China to take some roles in world affairs. This will contribute to a great advancement in science and technology in the world. Therefore, the rise of China can be heralded as having made positive contributions to the world. Although China is causing displacement of production in the European market, the challenge is not great. As has been discussed, there is no doubt that China’s rise has led to loss of job opportunities. This has forced the European economy to adjust to this aspect. Therefore, the rise of China can be viewed with mixed signals. It can be seen as a threat, as well an opportunity. However, the Europeans should take it as an opportunity so as to turn around and reap benefits that can be drawn from this phenomenon. Works Cited Blankert, Jan W. China Rising: Will the West Be Able to Cope: The Real Long-Term Challenge of the Rise of China. Singapore: World Scientific, 2009. Pri nt. Cooney, Kevin and Sato Yoichiro. The rise of China and international security: America and Asia respond. New York: Routeledge pub. 2009. Print. Hauser, Gunther. China: The Rising Power. Frankfurt, M: Lang, 2009. Print. Lardy, Nicholas. The Economic Rise of China: Threat or Opportunity? 2003. Web. Schmitt, Gary J. The Rise of China: Essays on the Future Competition. New York: Encounter Books, 2009. Print. Shi, Wei. Intellectual Property in Global Trading System: Eu-China Perspective. Berlin: Springer Berlin, 2008. Print. Xing, Li. The Rise of China and the Capitalist World Order. Farnham, Surrey: Ashgate Pub. Co. 2010. Print. This essay on Is the Rise of China a Threat or an Opportunity for Europe? was written and submitted by user Melanie Calderon to help you with your own studies. You are free to use it for research and reference purposes in order to write your own paper; however, you must cite it accordingly. You can donate your paper here.

Advanced Critical Writing The WritePass Journal

Advanced Critical Writing Introduction Advanced Critical Writing ). Alcohol is undoubtedly a public health issue and is involved in a high number of road traffic accidents and anti-social activities such as assault, as well as being associated with a number of chronic diseases including alcoholic liver disease and a range of cancers (Rehm et al., 2009; Schà ¼tze et al., 2011). Furthermore, the economic cost can be devastating with alcohol-related injury costing the National Health Service (NHS) around  £2.7 billion a year, based on 2006 to 2007 figures (NHS, 2011). Therefore, the Government should indeed feel some responsibility to tackle and reduce these figures if at all possible. The author argues that such a strategy as minimum unit pricing for alcohol will be an infringement on the British people, a violation of the free market economy and will cause moderate and responsible drinkers to pay for the â€Å"crimes of a few.† However, the author later contradicts themselves saying that â€Å"boosting the cost [of alcohol] isn’t going to stop me drinking, it’s going to just leave me out of pocket.† Here, the author has gone from the extreme and dramatic to an almost mocking of the proposed policy. It becomes unclear whether the author truly believes that the policy would severely affect the innocent or whether it would simply leave people short of a few pounds at the end of the month. This type of contradictory writing can also been seen elsewhere in the article. For example, the writer opens the article with a murky and sinister scene using evocative words and phrases such as â€Å"swarming†, â€Å"staggering† and †Å"teenagers hunched over a bottle of Frosty Jacks.† This use of language suggests that the author is disgusted and repelled by binge drinkers and the open consumption of cheap alcohol on British streets. However, the author quickly goes on to denounce Government attempts to tackle the problem as a â€Å"crazy idea†, once again sending out a mixed message to the reader. The author also argues against the claim that an increase in prices for drinks with a high alcohol content will put off the type of people who buy such drinks purely to achieve a state of drunkenness, namely individuals suffering from alcoholism. The author asks â€Å"isn’t it their choice to drink alcohol?† and suggests that it is unacceptable to hurt the average person financially by trying to price such individuals out of the alcohol market. This an extremely reductionist viewpoint, meaning that the author of the article is reducing the plight of an alcoholic to the result of just â€Å"their choice† rather than taking into account the plethora of reasons that can lead an individual down the destructive road of alcoholism, such as homelessness, debt or abuse. Such a view-point is potentially damaging as Spanagel (2009) has warned that a reductionist view of the causes of alcoholism can stand in the way of a better understanding of the underlying pathological p rocesses involved in such addictive behaviour. The author goes on to claim that implementation of a  £0.45 minimum unit price for alcohol is the result of the Government’s attempt to try and make revenue from people who can afford a price rise but are just inconvenienced by it. This is an extreme accusation and the author has failed to take into account the evidence that suggests otherwise. Namely that such a policy could have a positive effect on public health and the economy.   Using a price-to-consumption model using various data sources and based on 54 population sub-groups classed as harmful, hazardous or moderate drinkers, Purshouse et al. (2010) estimated that a  £0.45 minimum price unit for alcohol would reduce alcohol consumption by 4.5% and avoid 1,970 alcohol-related deaths.   A recent systematic review found that a price increase of alcohol by around 10% would lead to a reduction in consumption of alcohol by around 5% (Wagenaar, Tobler and Komro, 2010). Both of these studies have provided strong evidenc e that a minimum unit pricing strategy with alcohol would be effective in reducing hazardous alcohol consumption. Further strengthening the argument in favour of minimum unit pricing are doubts that other attempts to reduce alcohol consumption will be far from successful. In a recent editorial, McKee (2012) highlighted that the three main â€Å"lines of attack† for tackling hazardous drinking consist of marketing, pricing and availability. Marketing and restrictions on availability are difficult to control, especially due to the lobbying power that many companies within the alcohol industry possess (McKee, 2012), and education-based interventions have been shown to be ineffective (Anderson, Chisholm and Fuhr, 2009) Therefore, pricing appears to be potentially the most effective and most easily manipulated element that the Government can utilise to tackle hazardous drinking. However, in addition to the positive effects that a minimum pricing policy has been predicted to have, there were also a number of drawbacks. For example, an increase in type 2 diabetes in young women was predicted due to a loss of the health benefits of moderate alcohol consumption and most of the reductions in harm would have been seen in chronic disorders in the over 45s, limiting the positive effect on the health and well-being of younger people (Purshouse et al., 2010). Furthermore, the figures produced by Purshouse et al. (2010) were based on a time period 10 years after policy implementation, suggesting that the benefit of a minimum pricing policy could be a long time coming. These drawbacks could be seen to support the author’s claim that the Government would use a minimum pricing strategy primarily to increase their income, seeing as though implementation of the policy would be limited in its immediate and overall beneficial effects on public health. Furthermore, alternatives to minimum pricing such as increasing tax on alcohol, have also been found to decrease levels of alcohol consumption (Elder et al., 2010). However, the existence of potentially equally as effective strategies for tackling hazardous drinking does not automatically suggest a conspiracy by the Government to reap more revenue through a minimum pricing strategy. The author of the article disagrees with the claim that alcohol fuels crime and with the figure that intoxicated people are involved in causing around 5,000 avoidable crimes every year. However, it is well documented that alcohol is prolifically involved in crime. From 1998 to 1999, 70% of crimes were found to have involved alcohol (Home Office, 2001), with alcohol being a component in up to 70% of all stabbings and beatings, 40% of domestic violence incidents and 50% of child protection cases (Alcohol Concern, 2000). These figures are highly disturbing and the author’s credibility is severely damaged in denying belief in such figures. The author ends the article with a rhetorical question by asking whether we would want â€Å"to live in a free country where people live as their consciences tell them† or whether we want to try and â€Å"control the behaviour of the poor by pricing them out of activities that we disapprove of?†   A similar use of rhetoric can be seen throughout the article. For example, the author suggests that the next stage after minimum unit pricing may be an increase in theatre tickets to reduce the number of â€Å"poorer, less educated people who might talk during the show.† This is an example of hyperbole where the author is exaggerating in order to manipulate their audience and create a strong emotional reaction. Through the use of rhetoric, the author will hope to encourage their audience to ‘come round’ to their way of thinking. However, the article would be far more persuasive if the author were to use more facts and empirical evidence to support their v iews. In conclusion, the article is well-written in terms of persuasiveness and in using rhetoric to create a strong emotional reaction in the audience. However, the author too often makes statements that contradict current empirical evidence without justification, which damages the credibility of the source.   References Alcohol Concern (2000) Britain’s Ruin: Meeting Government Objectives via a National Alcohol Strategy. London, UK: Alcohol Concern. Anderson, P., Chisholm, D. and Fuhr, D.C. (2009) Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies and programmes to reduce the harm caused by alcohol. Lancet, 373, pp. 2234-2246. Elder, R.W., Lawrence, B., Ferguson, A., Naimi, T.S., Brewer, R.D., Chattopadhyay, S.K., Toomey, T.L. and Fielding, J.E. (2010) The effectiveness of tax policy interventions for reducing excessive alcohol consumption and related harms. American Journal of Preventative Medicine, 38(2), pp. 217-229. Home Office (2012) The Government’s Alcohol Strategy. London, UK: Home Office. Home Office (2001) Fighting Violent Crime Together: An Action Plan. London, UK: Home Office. Kuntsche, E., Rehm, J. and Gmel, G. (2004) Characteristics of binge drinkers in Europe. Social Science and Medicine, 59, pp. 113-127. McKee, M. (2012) Minimum unit pricing for alcohol – the case for action is overwhelming. European Journal of Public Health, 22(4), pp. 451. NHS (2011) Statistics on Alcohol: England, 2011. London, UK: The NHS Information Centre. Purshouse, R.C., Meier, P.S., Brennan, A., Taylor, K.B. and Rafia, R. (2010) Estimated effect of alcohol pricing policies on health and health economic outcomes in England: an epidemiological model. Lancet, 375, pp. 1355-1364. Rehm, J., Mathers, C., Popova, S., Thavorncharoensap, M., Teerawattananon, Y. and Patra, J. (2009) Global burden of disease and injury and economic cost attributable to alcohol use and alcohol-use disorders. Lancet, 373, pp. 2223-2233. Schà ¼tze, M., Boeing, H., Pischon, T. et al. (2011) Alcohol attributable burden of incidence of cancer in eight European countries based on results from prospective cohort study. British Medical Journal, 342, d1584. Spanagel, R. (2009) Alcoholism: A systems approach from molecular physiology to addictive behaviour. Physiological Reviews, 89(2), pp. 649-705. Wagenaar, A.C., Tobler, A.L. and Komro, K.A. (2010) Effects of alcohol tax and price policies on morbidity and mortality: a systematic review. American Journal of Public Health, 100, pp. 2270-2278.

Word of Mouth in Marketing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Word of Mouth in Marketing - Essay Example Word-of-mouth communication can greatly influence and shape a person's expectations about a certain product, and more often than not play a large role in the final consumer decision. For instance, in marketing movies, word-of-mouth feedback can make or break the movie, that is why producers take particular care of screen-testing the movie for any possible tweaks they could do render in reference to initial feedback generated. This ensures that once the movie is released to the general public there is a much bigger chance for positive word-of-mouth amongst viewers. It is powerful, influential, and best of all it is something that not even the best-funded PR machine could buy. It levels the playing field for the lower-budgeted films and gives them a chance against the big studio blockbusters which abound. Of course, there are certain circumstances where other types of communication are more effective than word-of-mouth communication. While it is probably the most influential type of communication, it is not all- encompassing. For instance, it is highly unlikely that the typical consumer would rely on word-of-mouth for very big purchases such as cars and houses.

International Business Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

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